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Long Covid, what are the predictors

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ALREADY IN THE FIRST WEEK OF INFECTION Covid-19 you can predict how long the symptoms will last. We know that most of them resolve within a few weeks. However, for some people, the battle with infection symptoms may be longer and have major implications for overall health. They are the patients affected by what is technically defined Long Covid. It is estimated that nearly 1 in 4 Covid-19 survivors find themselves battling a long list of confusing symptoms, including persistent wheezing, fatigue, muscle aches, chronic infections, insomnia, stress, and debilitating health in general.

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Currently, there is no clinical evidence to suggest exactly what makes you prone to developing this long-lasting form of Covid-19 or why some people tend to recover easily while others don’t. But now a study conducted by a group of researchers from King’s College London, Massachusetts General Hospital and Boston Children’s Hospital has revealed predictors of Long Covid infection. In a study published in the journal Nature Medicine, scholars found that age, body mass index (BMI), gender, and number of symptoms in the first 7 days of infection they can be instrumental in influencing the duration of the disease. More precisely: being obese, women and onward with age increases the risks. Furthermore, Long Covid is more frequent in those who report more than 5 symptoms already in the first days of the infection.

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4,128 people with Long Covid were involved in the study, who provided valuable information about their health through the app. Covid Symptom Study. “We asked the participants – explain the researchers – to record their state of health, symptoms and the results of any Covid-19 tests on a daily basis through the Symptom Study app”. The researchers considered a period between March 24 and September 2, 2020. The results showed that 13.3% of patients still complained of symptoms after 28 days of diagnosis, 4% after 8 weeks and 2.3% 12 weeks after diagnosis. Complaints include fatigue, headache, dyspnea and anosmia. “We found that individuals with Long Covid – the researchers report – were more likely to require a hospital evaluation during illness. The only pre-existing condition significantly associated with long-term symptoms appeared to be asthma.”

The researchers then compared the duration of symptoms with some characteristics associated with the condition, such as age, gender, body mass index, and the presence of comorbidities. Well, from the analysis of the data it emerged that the cases of Long Covid have appeared with greater frequency in subjects suffering from obesity, among the elderly and in female patients. Furthermore, the scientists observed how “individuals with more than five symptoms during the first week were more likely to develop long-term symptoms“and that the disturbances”more predictive were fatigue, headache, dyspnoea, hoarse voice, and myalgia“While the most commonly reported symptoms beyond 28 days were fatigue (97.7% of cases), headache (91.2%), but there was no lack of cardiac symptoms (such as palpitations and tachycardia, 6.1%), memory or concentration difficulties (4.1%).

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The study then made it possible to identify two models of symptomatology: the first is composed of patients who report fatigue, headache and upper respiratory tract disorders, such as shortness of breath, sore throat, persistent cough and loss of smell; the second is composed of patients with additional multisystem disorders, including fever and gastroenterological symptoms. “The model could be used to identify individuals who are at a higher risk of experiencing Long Covid,” the researchers say. “We know that the infection can manifest itself with a wide spectrum of severity, ranging from asymptomatic forms to the possibility of death of the patient. Our prospective study – they add – could help define conditions that increase the risk of experiencing a severe form of Covid-19 and identify the most effective methods to intervene in this regard “.

However, the same researchers call for caution. “Further studies will be needed to confirm our results,” they specify. “It is essential to quantify the risk of Long Covid in order to optimally use the health resources available and adopt measures aimed at timely recovery from the disease”, they conclude.

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