The variante Omicron spreads with more speed than Delta and escapes better than other mutationsimmunity. We do not yet know reliable data on severity of the infection, it takes two maybe three weeks to figure it out. But in the meantime an important barrier – experts say – to contain the spread and reduce the consequences can be the administration of third dose of vaccine.
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Omicron variant: the English study
This is confirmed by the weekly report that comes from United Kingdom, where the Omicron variant has already spread widely, causing a sharp increase in infections. To style it there Uk Healt Security Agency, and dwells in many pages on the Omicron variant and its possible evolutions.
In reality it is estimated that the infected are already 7.000, 8.7% of the total. And the contagion curve caused by this mutation is clearly rising.
Moreover, it is one internal transmission, is therefore not linked to trips abroad.
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Omicron variant: vaccines, the drop in protection after two doses
The study tested the vaccine‘s effectiveness against the Omicron variant. Immunization undergoes a decline that is considered to be very significant compared to the Delta.
The first data are these:
- efficacy of the AstraZeneca vaccine six months after the second dose: 0%
- efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine six months after the second dose: 34%
Much lower numbers than those referred, under the same conditions, to the Delta variant.
At the moment the study is preliminary, because it is based only on 581 almost. But the first results are still arousing some concern.
Omicron variant: so after the third dose
The situation changes a lot, again according to this research, after the administration of third dose.
- AstraZeneca, efficacy against the Omicron variant after the third dose: 71%
- Pfizer, efficacy against the Omicron variant after the third dose: 76%
And this in the first month following administration.
We are certainly not at the levels of protection offered against the Delta mutation (over 90%), but coverage that exceeds 70% is considered very high (it is the average of other vaccines against different infections).
This protection is towards contagion. The hope, it will be necessary to evaluate in the coming weeks, is that immunization with the third dose is equally effective against it severe infection and hospitalizations (as happened against the other variants).
Omicron variant: how much vaccines escape
There are now many international studies that confirm the ability of the Omicron variant of escape vaccination coverage more easily.
Current vaccines are estimated to be 10 times less capable of neutralizing than neutralizing Omicron with respect to the Delta mutation.
Is between 20 and 40 times less capable of blocking Omicron with respect to the original stock (that of the first wave and on which the vaccine was studied).
Even in this case, however, these are preliminary studies.
Omicron variant: less severe?
The good news is that at the moment there are no in Great Britain hospitalizations or deaths related to the Omicron variant. It is true that among the infected there are few people considered to be at high risk (elderly or frail). But the data confirms an analysis that was developed in South Africa, the first country where the mutation spread: only one third of patients hospitalized for covid needed specialist care or intensive care.
With the Delta variant the data was very different, and concerns i two thirds of patients.
This data would suggest that the Omicron variant is less capable of developing a serious infection. But it is still not possible to say for sure.
For one reason: they were included in the calculation also reinfections and therefore patients who for obvious reasons respond better to the virus. It will be necessary to wait one, two weeks to get a certain picture of the danger of the Omicron variant.
Omicron variant: very high contagiousness
What is confirmed, unfortunately, is the greater contagiousness of the Omicron variant, surely higher than Delta and up to 500 times more transmissible than the original strain, what has been termed Wuhan.
But it is also capable of infecting vaccinated people 3 to 8 times more than the Delta mutation.
I almost said family infections of Omicron in Great Britain are the the 19% per Omicron versus 8.5% of Delta.
Also for this reason the doubling of infections from Omicron happens every 3 days. It is estimated that in Britain in mid-December 50% of the infections will have been caused by the new mutation.
Omicron variant: conclusions
And so there are two certainties currently on the Omicron variant:
- escapes vaccine coverage better;
- it is much more contagious than previous infections.
To be clarified remains the central knot:
is it more or less dangerous than the Delta variant, or rather, is it more or less capable of causing a serious infection?
Preliminary data, however, say that for those who are vaccinated (preferably with the third dose) the chances of getting infected and ending up in hospital are reduced.
But, in fact, these are preliminary data. We will know more soon.