FROM OUR REPORTER
TAIPEI — What can the international community do to prevent that Taiwanthe island that the great Portuguese navigators called Shapely (Beautiful), be the spark of the next war?Fifty years ago, to calm down Beijing and restore diplomatic relations, the Machiavellian Henry Kissinger agreed with the no less astute Zhou Enlai that the United States would recognize “One China,” Mao’s. The rest of the world has aligned. A stormy waiting period in the Taiwan Strait followed, with the People’s Republic of China committed to building its economy almost from scratch.
Now that Xi Jinping leads the world‘s second superpower, the “Taiwanese question” has become explosive. The status quo of democratic and de facto separate Taipei from Beijing is faltering: Xi demands «reunification»: peaceful (unthinkable political surrender of the «province») or by force of arms: just yesterday Beijing swore to «crush the secessionists». An army of nearly two million soldiers against 180,000, of whom 40,000 conscripts for just four months.
“We are not asking any country to fight for us, at the moment we need moral support and we are receiving it much more than before,” he said in an interview with Courier and to other international newspapers Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu.
On the coasts of the island in «war games» take place these days computer simulated by the Taipei Defense. You fight virtually in fourteen “Red Beaches” where the invaders would try to set up their beachheads. More realistic exercises will follow, with soldiers and live ammunition. Military analysts predict that T-Day, the first wave of a Chinese landing, would cause a bloodbath. The government of President Tsai Ing-wen from 2024 will extend compulsory military service to one year from the current four months.
He explains Minister Wu: «The necessary weapons continue to arrive from the United States (the contract for 400 Harpoon anti-ship missiles has just been signed, at a cost of 1.7 billion dollars, ndr). We tell our European friends to consider that the impact of a war unleashed by China would also be very serious for their economies and the only way to avert it is to strengthen ourselves. But let’s be clear: Taiwan must know how to defend itself, show determination, we won’t have the right to ask other countries to fight alongside us if we don’t prepare ourselves».
Tight deadlines
The time to do this may be short. At the Pentagon they make predictions of doom on the attack in grand style or the air-naval blockade by the Chinese: the hypotheses range from 2025 to 2027. On the “Red Beaches”, therefore, the Taiwanese are practicing to hold on.
The watchword of all the government representatives we have met in recent days is “no alarmism”. “We’re worried, but not scared,” Connie Chang, director general of the Development Council, told us. Â «It is not the first time that we are under threat, even if lately Beijing has changed its approach in an irrational way», she observes.
But how long could you resist with this unbridgeable numerical inferiority? Dr. Shen Ming-shih, director of the National Defense Institute, replies: “We are an island, supplies can only arrive by sea or by airlift. Someone gives our army ten days to hold under fire, but I say “until the end.” We would have to hold off the invasion alone for two weeks, better if one, counting on US intervention. The Americans could take just a couple of days to get from their bases in Japan, South Korea and Guam». The last big Chinese maneuvers in April, with the excuse of the meeting between President Tsai and the speaker of the American House McCarthy, according to researcher Jiang Hsinbiao, a former Navy officer “they were a test of cutting the routes with Okinawa and Guam, to prevent the US Navy from rescuing us” .
The forecast for 2027
According to Dr. Shen, the fateful date could be 2027: “It also has a symbolic logic of its own, because 2027 is the centenary of the PLA (the Chinese People’s Army) and Xi has ordered the generals to be ready to fight and win a war for that day. I think he hasn’t decided yet, his choices will depend on the signals he will receive from the USA and on the perception he will have of our strength, he is also studying the difficulties of the Russians against the Ukrainians. I think the Chinese commands are uncertain about their ability to wage a sustained war.’
The people are serene
‘Ren Ai’ means ‘Generous Love’ in Mandarin. And it is the name of one of Taipei’s main thoroughfares, where we approached dozens of passers-by enjoying a fine rain after months of drought. What do you think of this crisis? ‘What crisis?’ was the first response from Dr. Huang, 40, a doctor in a public clinic. The Chinese threat to invade, we tell him.  «Ah, we’ve been hearing you repeat for many years, you don’t make me feel anxious». Mrs. Lai has a little girl all smiles in her arms: “I think it’s just a matter of politics and that our government knows what to do.” An elderly couple walks with their poodle: “We will not give in, Taiwan is not China, we are two different countries, we are free and they are not”. Robert Yu, 45, laughs: “Taiwan is developed and solid, never governed by the Communist Party, in China they have a lot of economic problems, the people there know it and I don’t think they want to solve them by shooting at us… I’m not afraid and then, with or without fear, you have to live».
The government has launched a training plan for army reservistscould also recall the computer technician Yu, who is 35 years old: “I would do my duty, as I have seen that all the Ukrainians are doing, I hope that given the Russian Army blocked by Kiev, Xi will think carefully before copying Putin” ». Ms. Chen Hsiao-ling, a nurse, gives her rational analysis: «I heard that Xi Jinping promised to work for peace in Ukraine, how could he make war on Taiwan? He would lose face and all credibility ».