What are the effects of the Delta variant? Do you have to worry? And what is the pressure on the health system? Questions and answers, to take stock of the state of the pandemic in Italy and the risks of certain choices
The Delta variant is causing an increase in cases in Italy, exactly as predicted; and with cases, there is also an increase in hospitalizations and ICU admissions.
Should we worry?
If we look at the present moment, not yet, but the pressure on intensive care in some regions, such as Sardinia, Sicily, Lazio and Liguria is increasing. These are the regions with the greatest tourist flow in July, and therefore in part what is being observed is understandable. We are still a long way from saturation, even considering the significant increase in ICU beds achieved in 2020; however Sardinia has passed the “first level of alert”, because over 10% of its intensive care beds are occupied by Covid-19 patients.
Why is there still concern despite the vaccination campaign?
Unfortunately, the pool of subjects who, if infected, can end up in intensive care, is still very high: this is because millions of people over 50 and over 60 are not yet vaccinated. Since the average hospitalization rate of infected subjects is around 3%, and the average hospitalization rate in intensive care is equal to 10% of these, with peaks at 20%, as in Liguria, there is still ample room to send them under stress the national health system.
Who is potentially capable of causing the stress of the NHS?
Definitely the unvaccinated subjects, especially in the age groups most at risk. It is no coincidence that 90 percent of those admitted to intensive care, according to the president of the Italian hospitals, are unvaccinated subjects, in a situation in which almost all infections are now caused by the delta variant. As it is now clear, in Italy, vaccines very effectively protect against hospitalization and intensive care, even in the presence of the delta variant. Therefore, under current conditions, individuals who are not vaccinated by their own choice take the responsibility of putting our national health system at risk once again, if the epidemiological curve does not improve rapidly, as happened for example in England. In any case, they are already burdening hospitals unnecessarily today.
But as the virus still evolves, aren’t we just postponing an inevitable problem?
Not necessarily; at least not getting vaccinated as quickly as possible. Contrary to those who believe that it is the selection of vaccinates that causes the emergence of immunoresistant variants, in reality it is precisely the free circulation of the virus between unvaccinated subjects that causes the appearance of these variants; without this appearance, no selection would be possible, and no variant would emerge.
That this is the case, for the first time a study proves it, which presents an interesting preliminary analysis of the genetic variability data of the delta variant – that is, it presents the statistics with which new mutants are differentiated in the delta variant, potentially capable of being even worse. . This work, for now still at the preprint stage, shows how by analyzing the genetic variability of the delta virus in 16 different countries, it is much higher in the poorly vaccinated countries, and decreases gradually in the less vaccinated countries, in accordance with the fact. that where there is a higher vaccination rate, there are fewer replicative events due to fewer average infections per inhabitant, and therefore less generation of genetic variety.
Therefore, the first available data support a greater role of the unvaccinated in the generation of new variants, and reinforce the concept that subsequent selection in the population, due to immunity (both that achieved after infection and that achieved after vaccine) is a step which occurs only when sufficient genetic variety has been generated by a high viral circulation, such as that which occurs in unvaccinated populations.
Let’s recap
As expected, even on these pages, the large reservoir of unvaccinated subjects, combined with the rapid circulation of the delta variant, has caused a resumption of cases of infection, starting from the regions most subject to tourist flows. As expected, even on these pages, intensive care is starting to see an increase in the number of hospitalized patients with Covid-19, 90 percent of which are unvaccinated. As expected, even on these pages, the lack of vaccination increases the number of variants generated per unit of time, which are inversely proportional to the vaccination rate of a population; these variants may contain future descendants of the delta and other strains, with immunoevasive properties. How many tests are still needed to illustrate the need for vaccination and the social responsibility, not just individual, of those who choose not to get vaccinated?