The entire world, and especially America’s adversaries in Moscow and Beijing, are watching closely yet another “Trump psychodrama”. Everyone tries to draw indications on the state of health of theAmericaand also on the probabilities of a re-election of the former Republican president in 2024which would have worldwide repercussions. The investigation underway in New York before a Grand Jury, which could lead to his “arrest” (I insist on the quotation marks), is considered fragile even by observers more hostile to Trump. Whatever happens, the republican leader’s calls for revolt do not seem to trigger large mobilisations, fears of another January 6, 2021 seem exaggerated for now. And all this hubbub, contrary to a popular theory, shouldn’t boost Trump’s reelection chances.
I start with an explanation about the quotes above. When we talk about arrest, what do we mean? It is highly unlikely that Trump will be handcuffed and locked up in a cell. The arrest in question should be a bureaucratic and short procedure: time to take his mugshot and fingerprints, as well as to formally notify him of what crime he is indicted, if the special jury so decides. Then the defendant would be free, pending the trial hearings. The formality can last a few minutes, even if it is full of «photo-opportunities», symbolic and spectacular images: no former president has ever been indicted, not even Richard Nixon for the 1974 Watergate scandal. It is Trump who tries to turn it into a show, conjuring a far more spectacular arrest than it actually would be. It has already unleashed the imagination of fake news manufacturers who have circulated images of Trump in an orange uniform on social media as a prisoner, or of police operations as befits the arrest in flagrante delicto of a mafia boss.
The cause of the brief and symbolic arrest would be the indictment following the investigation of the case Stormy Daniels, the porn star paid $130,000 to buy her silence during the election campaign. The payment itself is not illegal. The indictment alleges that Trump hid the true nature of this payment in his company’s accounts, therefore we are in a field closer to false accounting. He is prosecutable under New York law, not federal law. However, it is an infringement that is normally punished with a fine, it is not a criminal offence. The prosecution wants to be able to connect this infraction with another, the violation of the campaign finance law, which is a federal regulation. Even a newspaper that prides itself on practicing “resistance” journalism and vigorously militates in the anti-Trump camp, the New York Times, acknowledges that “spicy details in themselves do not build an investigation”. The left-leaning daily maintains that the prosecutor “must be able to carry out a difficult manoeuvre”, “based on a legal theory that has never been used by a judge”.
To the strong doubts that even the New York Times, something must be added on the figure of the prosecutor. The one who signs this survey is Alvin Bragg. His is an elected office and Bragg is a Democrat. Not just any democrat: belongs to the wing of the radical left, the one that theorizes a judicial revolution to straighten out all social injustices. Bragg’s overall record, even according to many Democrats, is disastrous. If New York has suffered a sharp increase in crime, including homicide, it is because he has released many inmates convicted of violent crimes. Especially if the perpetrators belong to ethnic minorities, Bragg regards them by definition as victims of an unjust society. The New York Police Department complains that it cannot restore order to the city if the prosecutor releases most of those arrested by the police. Democratic mayor l’afroamericano Eric Adamshas repeatedly called for Bragg to be ousted, but the State Governor Kathy Hochul (also a Democrat) is the only one who has the power to do it and doesn’t dare. Bragg in fact in his crusade to empty prisons enjoys important support in the left wing of the party, and in the media such as the New York Times. The suspicion is that Bragg has decided to ride his judicial campaign against Trump to become unassailable and overshadow the budget of his management in the city.
The one on the porn-star Stormy Daniels is just one of the many prosecutions opened against Trump, from different judiciaries across the nation. Some have already deflated due to obvious factionalism. The alleged maxi-scandal that occupied the front pages of the newspapers, when Trump was accused of having taken home confidential documents from the White House, became invisible when it was discovered that… so everyone does. Joe Biden has the garage of his Wilmington home full of boxes with “classified” documentsi.e. top secret (memories of his vice presidency with Barack Obama).
The most serious investigations should be those involving tax fraud, avoidance and evasion by Trump’s companies. They have been dragging on for many years, some starting when he was still president. Here too the “così fan tutti” applies: The Donald, when he was just a real estate developer, enjoyed regulations tailored to an industry that thrives on tax privileges. All the big developers have built fortunes also thanks to scandalous fiscal devices that allow them to minimize the tax burden. In New York State, these laws often bear the signature of leftist politicians, since the Democratic party dominates in this part of the country. Trump for most of his life was close to the Democratic party, financed the campaigns of all local politicians including Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer. The tangle of complicity and co-responsibility that allow real estate owners to pay very little tax is so complicated that perhaps it explains why the Internal Revenue Service (the Revenue Agency) waited decades before launching any serious investigations into the accounts of the Trump company.
The judicial shortcut therefore has many limitations and contraindications. Maybe that explains why it is right Trump to insist on making trials spectacular: he must be convinced that he can win them, and come out of them as a martyr.
However, the martyrological path towards re-election runs the risk of not working. Here I give the floor to one of the most authoritative electoral strategists of the Republican party, Karl Rove. StAccording to Rove, Trump’s appeal to his base to take to the streets to defend him from arrest is simply “stupid”. Rove explains his reasoning thus: if the ultras of MAGA (Make America Great Again) obey the leader and give rise to violent protests, weaken Trump’s re-election chances because they bring his role in theassault on Congress on January 6, 2021. If, on the other hand, as seems more likely, the protests do not gather a mass following, this will be a sign that popular support for Trump has declined. He could even combine the two negative effects: even small groups of rowdy people would be enough to give an impression of danger. In conclusion, for Rove “the advantages for Trump of an indictment of him are temporary” and destined to vanish soon. His strategy insists on mobilizing the most motivated and fanatical base, but already in 2020 this base was not enough for him to get re-elected. “The most probable result – Rove continues – is that his outbursts will convince more Republicans that he is inelectable”.
Meanwhile the Republican Ron DeSantis he already regrets having aligned himself too blatantly with Trump’s position against Ukraine. The governor of Florida a few days ago had defined the war in Ukraine as “a territorial dispute” where “no vital interests for America are at stake”. Inundated with criticism from the classic Republican establishmentwho is hardly pro-Russian, DeSantis retraced his steps, said his words had been “misunderstood,” and called Vladimir Putin “a war criminal”. Xi Jinping and Putin in this phase must think that a republican victory would weaken the western front by bringing America back to isolationist positions; but if they bet on the stability of Trumpism they are making a risky calculation.