Luca Lombardo, meteorologist at the Geophysical Observatory of the University of Modena and Reggio, says that the storm that hit Emilia-Romagna is the perfect storm. And he claims he’s never seen anything like it. Adding that storm phenomena in the future will be like this: more intense and rarer. Lombardo explains why the AM weather service defines Cyclone Minerva as an «explosive depression»: «It is the scientific definition that indicates so much energy at stake. A lot indeed. This situation in May is unprecedented in my 35 years of forecasting. In an interview with National newspaper Lombardo explains what is happening: «There is warm air, decidedly above average, in Eastern Europe, in the Balkans, in Turkey, in North Africa. There is cold air in Western Europe.’
Explosive depression
The pressure variation exceeds 24 millibars in 24 hours: «What is happening is nothing more than the elimination of the temperature difference between the two zones». The “explosive depression” is triggering a different phenomenon than usual. It pours in half of Italy and as soon as there is a moment’s respite, immediately after it starts again. «In the most exposed areas, such as in Emilia-Romagna and the Marches, the fall of 200 liters of water every square meter confirms the danger of overflowing and flooding. 48 hours of relative respite will follow. Then from Friday it will start to rain again. Where the soils are already saturated, this means new risks». The meteorologist explains that «the type of rainfall is surprising: in autumn, like in October and November. Although, overall, May has always been an unstable month. The peaks of 35 degrees twelve months ago, certainly less unpleasant, in fact represent a much more significant deviation from the standard values».
The inevitable and the unmanageable
According to Lombardo, by now «we are entering a paradigm of extreme climatic phenomena. It will be hotter and it will rain less, but be careful: when it rains, the rainfall will be much more intense. Just like these days.” And therefore to defend themselves «everyone, without distinction, will have to carefully follow the weather reports. We need a new culture. Warning notices are often laughed at. Instead they must be taken very seriously by all citizens. Italy must protect itself «by managing the inevitable and avoiding the unmanageable. The inevitable is managed by improving the culture of the climate and the self-behavior of citizens”. While the unmanageable «is avoided, at the state level, by competing with the other EU countries to work for the reduction of greenhouse gases. It’s the only way to go. Whether we like it or not.”
Another 10 days of bad weather
According to forecasts, another ten days of unstable weather and below average temperatures await us, quite the opposite of May 2021 in which a dry and hot month was recorded. The rains will continue, especially affecting Emilia-Romagna and the Tyrrhenian Sea, only on Thursday there will be a brief respite. Italy is in an intercyclonic phase. Indeed, the Tunisian cyclone born between Algeria, Tunisia and Libya and which also caused thunderstorms in the Sahara, if it hit Sicily and a large part of the South on Monday, is now reaching the middle Adriatic and will still cause severe bad weather. The heaviest rains are expected again in Romagna, the high Marches and the low Tyrrhenian Sea.
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