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Will Germans soon have fewer children?

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Will Germans soon have fewer children?


The maternity ward of the St. Elisabeth Catholic Hospital in Leipzig in 2016. Due to the increasing number of deliveries, an expansion of capacity was considered.
Image: E.g

More children are being born in Germany again: for a few years now, the birth rate in Germany has been in the middle range in Europe at 1.5 children per woman. But the many crises will probably soon leave their mark. A guest post.

Dhe number 2.1 is an important quantity in demographic research because it indicates the so-called maintenance level. If the birth rate falls permanently below this value, the population without immigration from abroad will sooner or later fall. For a long time, the Nordic countries, especially Sweden, were seen as a model for progressive family policies. The birth rate was close to the replacement level, while at the same time these countries scored well with gender equality in the labor market.

The birth rate in the Federal Republic, on the other hand, has oscillated around a value of only 1.3 to 1.4 since the 1970s. Western Germany was regularly at the bottom of the European distribution. In the GDR, fertility peaked briefly in the 1970s. However, the East German birth rate collapsed drastically after reunification. Since 2005, the annual rates in east and west have been at a similar level.

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