BRUSSELS – Redistribution of refugees, recognition of the status of a country at risk for Ukraine, facilities for expatriation procedures and another allocation to deal with the emergency. Here is the plan that Europe is preparing to manage the foreseeable wave of Ukrainians fleeing the war.
Today the EU interior ministers convened in Brussels will discuss it precisely to set up an initial structure that can administer the exodus already underway from the country under attack.
The first step will then be to provide aid and disburse an initial sum in favor of the neighboring states: Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania. The second will be to understand how many refugees will actually be. Current estimates reach 200,000, but it is clear that they will grow further in the coming days. The US ambassador to the UN had spoken of 5 million in recent days.
The third step will perhaps be the decisive one: to verify that all 27 officially declare themselves available for reception. Italy, for example, has already made it known that it is ready. And it could not be otherwise given that in the tug-of-war on migrants leaving Africa he had always urged his allies to solidarity unlike other capitals now involved in the crisis such as Warsaw and Budapest.
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However, if the answer is unanimous – as many predict – then a mechanism of equal redistribution will be triggered among the 27. The rule will be to assign the same quota set by the European budget. For example: Italy receives 13 per cent of the funds entered in the EU budget and will accommodate 13 per cent of Ukrainians on the run. However, this criterion will involve a series of clearing houses. Many of those fleeing the Russian bombs, in fact, will try to reunite with family members who have already expatriated and who work in other EU countries. Those who ask for reunification will then also be included within the quota. In Italy alone, there are 248,000 Ukrainians.
All this needs to streamline and modify bureaucratic procedures. Starting with the inclusion of Ukraine in the list of countries at risk to allow its citizens to be recognized as refugees almost automatically.
This plan could be subject to variations if today, at the European Council of Interior Ministers, there were only one member of the Union who declared himself opposed to welcoming it. Then, at that point, the redistributive quotas will be voluntary and established with a “political” choice.
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Another aspect must be considered: many of the fleeing Ukrainians who do not have family members already expatriated in other European countries, will ask or otherwise try to stay in the borderlands and then return home as soon as possible. Namely in Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland and Moldova. Some of the aid will also go to Chisinau although it is not part of the EU.
The European Commission is ready to make changes in the budget to allocate a substantial amount for this umpteenth migration crisis. In these hours we are talking about a figure that should be around one billion euros. All this must be accompanied by a further border control. To avoid unwanted entry (convicts fleeing from prisons) and infiltrations (terrorists or spies).
This story, however, is opening a new chapter on the long-standing migrant issue. After the Belarus case, again the countries that were most opposed to a joint management of migratory flows from the south are asking for the support of EU partners. A situation that could unlock the Pact on migrants and asylum which has been inactive for over a year. Accompanying it with a revision of the Schengen treaty on free movement.