a spring Ukrainian offensive is expected since the beginning of the year. Speculation abounds as to whether or not it has already begun. How do you see it?
It is important to note that this offensive will be different from the one the Ukrainians planned and successfully executed in the Kharkiv region and also against the southern flank in Kherson, where they managed to free large parts of their territory from Russian control. The space was much more open there, and by pretending to attack the southern flank, but then making a major attack in the Kharkov region, they achieved a fairly significant success.
Now the situation will look a little different, because the Russian forces are preparing for a counterattack, and the Ukrainians will not have such an open field. They will go into positions where the Russians are preparing, digging in and strengthening their defenses precisely because they have hit the limits of their own progress. The situation will be difficult for the Ukrainians. That’s probably the first thing to realize.
There is a lot of speculation that the Ukrainians have already landed on the other side of the Dnieper and that they are carrying out some operations, but this may also be some deliberate cover-up maneuver to divert attention and prepare the ground for other sections of the front where they will divert the attention of the Russian forces. We see countless different theories as to where the offensive will break out. Added to this are leaks from the United States, which also fueled speculation.
Obviously, we just don’t know the plans, and I think that as much as there’s a lot of talk about the offensive and it’s definitely in the works and it’s about to go down, we won’t know until the last minute where it’s going to break out in full and what it’s all about cover-up maneuvers , which are operations to divert attention.
is Ukraine on track to make the offensive successful?
Whether it will succeed and to what extent is a big question. In this context, it is also good to see that, even though the Ukrainians managed to carry out a very high-quality operation in the Kharkiv region last year, at one point they had to stop, regroup their forces and, so to speak, take a breather precisely so that their efforts would not dissipate and were not in any way attackable from the Russian side. It can be seen that the Ukrainians will think in this direction as well. The results we will see may not be as significant as last year.
you say that the Ukrainian offensive will not be as large-scale as it was last year. But some analysts claim that it will be the largest mass attack in Ukraine.
That’s not what I meant at all. In terms of material forces and human capacity, the operation will indeed be very extensive. Whether it will be the most extensive is a question, but it is true that the Ukrainians have been preparing for it for a very long time, so it certainly cannot be ruled out.
On the other hand, I was alluding to the fact that the progress might not be so essential for the resources spent. The results we will see may not be as significant as last year. The end result may not be as dramatic as Ukrainians would like, despite the capacities that Ukraine is putting into it.
and what will decide the success or failure of the Ukrainian army?
I think it will be both how both sides will be prepared and with what capacity they will enter the operation. We see that the Russian side was exhausted to a certain extent when they ended their offensive in a free manner precisely because they were simply tired and their forces were worn out.
Now comes the moment for the other side, which, despite pressure from the Russian side, has been proactively cultivating forces that it will be able to throw onto the battlefield. It will certainly be, as I say, a state of combat readiness, it will certainly also be a certain maneuvering tactic, it will be planning a strike.
Maybe it will be more strikes spread in different sections of the front so that it is possible to break the positions in some parts of the front line. When I talked about the Russians preparing, it is absolutely crucial to find the weaknesses that will allow the Ukrainians to penetrate the ranks of the Russian army.
Intelligence activity will be absolutely key. Ukrainians have invested a lot in it in the past months. Of course, it will also be a factor that we in the West can influence, that is, the supply of ammunition, the supply of weapons and the training of Ukrainian forces. They must be prepared for the offensive to be carried out for an extended period of time and must be well supplied. Units must be prepared for a longer operation.
How important will the outcome be in the context of the entire war?
The result will be crucial, it will be crucial politically, it will also be crucial for the West. The last months have repeatedly confirmed that the more successful the Ukrainians are, the more support they have from the West.
you talked about the Russians digging in their positions and also preparing for a Ukrainian offensive. From your point of view, are they afraid of what Ukraine and its Western allies are planning for them?
Yes, I think he is afraid. I was referring to the offensive in the Kharkiv region, which got out of control and there was a chaotic withdrawal, the collapse of battle lines and entire units. This was a huge failure on the part of the Russian armed forces and you can see that they have, I would say, a panic fear of this happening. Concerns are spreading, I understand, certainly among the Russian troops, no doubt among the commanders whose position depends on it.
We can also see it in a number of occupied territories, including, for example, Crimea, which has been fought over intensively in recent months. Certain taboos are being broken and there is a lot of pressure coming both from Ukraine and, for example, from some Central and Eastern European states and even members of the European Union, who openly say that they will support Ukraine in regaining Crimea. Even inside the Crimean peninsula, preparations are underway precisely to ensure that the situation does not get out of control. The political appeal is also very strong here.
a few days ago, Ukrainian troops were supposed to cross the Dnieper River near Kherson in the south of Ukraine. Is this one of the indications that the fighting for Crimea could take place already this year?
It is definitely in Ukraine’s interest to put Crimea back on the agenda. As recently as last year, it was completely out of the question that Crimea would become the subject of the negotiations themselves. In the beginning, the rhetoric was completely different. There was talk that he might stay in Russia for some time, and Zelenskyy was open to different scenarios as recently as last March. Then, in the course of the autumn, when Ukraine succeeded in fundamentally refuting, pushing and breaking through the Russian positions, it completely changed.
That Crimea will be one of the targets under consideration is certainly true. The Kherson region is one of the sensitive regions, and political logic also plays a role in Donbass, where there is an interest on the part of Ukraine to show that not all of the Luhansk and Donetsk administrative regions are under the control of Russian forces.
If we are talking about Crimea, I think that even the strikes from last year, for example against the Crimean bridge over the Sea of Azov, gave an idea that the Ukrainians not only did not resent it, but on the contrary, they are actively preparing those operations. Hand in hand with this, it is already such an unwritten rule, goes the repression carried out by the Russian Federation, for example, on the territory of the occupied Crimea.
Ukraine’s secret service apparently attempted to assassinate Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday using a medium-range drone carrying 17 kilograms of explosives. Do you believe that it was really a Ukrainian event?
I confess that I can’t really determine it. I can’t say for sure if the Ukrainian secret services were really behind it. It is certainly one of those scenarios that would be extremely convenient for Ukraine. On the other hand, it can also be seen that these operations have become more frequent recently.
There is speculation about the extent to which the Ukrainians had a hand in the recent bombings in the center of St. Petersburg. It is clear how it was in the case of blowing up the car of Alexander Dugin’s daughter. It can be seen that the Ukrainians are operating on Russian territory. There is always speculation as to whether they or some other force was behind it. But the cards are basically open.
if we really accept that this was a Ukrainian plan to eliminate Vladimir Putin, what would the success of such an operation mean for the further development of the war?
It would be a huge shock. This is also something they rely on and often think about. From my point of view, it would definitely be a shock for Russian society. It would certainly also be an impulse inside the Russian elite. It’s something that I see as very sensitive because the Russian regime is even more personified than it has been in the past, when the elites have been largely marginalized over the last 14 months and have been shown not to play such a vital role. The level of centralism, the concentration of power in the hands of Vladimir Putin has deepened even more.
Cutting off the imaginary head of the Russian regime would undoubtedly be a huge achievement, as well as the potential for destabilization, which could give Ukraine time and perhaps better opportunities to achieve strategic goals. On the Russian side, a whole series of internal mechanisms would have to be triggered, which would have to generate a new head of state, because this is how the Russian system is anchored, which is essentially presidential according to the 1993 constitution. It would be a very fundamental shift
Czech President Petr Pavel arrived in Kyiv on Friday together with Slovak President Zuzana Čaputová. It is sometimes joked that Western representatives take turns in Kyiv like on a merry-go-round. How does Ukrainian society react to such visits? Are such visits still an important symbol for her?
It’s a symbol. Zuzana Čaputová’s trip was postponed for a long time, and the fact that even Petr Pavel, a person who supports Ukraine in a very fundamental way, is a representative of the Czech Republic, which has an excellent reputation in Ukraine, is certainly something that counts. His personality, as well as his behavior, are very visible and will certainly be appreciated in Ukraine. I have no doubt that this journey will resonate very strongly.
We publish the article with the permission of the forum24.cz portal.
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