King Mohammed VI said in his last speech from the Throne: “In continuation of the social protection workshops, we await the commencement, at the end of this year, as scheduled, of granting social compensation to the benefit of the targeted families; We hope that this direct income will contribute to improving the living conditions of millions of families and children, whose suffering we feel,” adding that “this step will constitute a fundamental pillar in our development and social model to preserve the dignity of citizens in all its dimensions.”
It seems that this saying, which was issued by the Moroccan monarch, created, according to observers, “great hopes and relief among many Moroccan families, who are waiting for this support to lift them out of the harsh claws of poverty.” It also raised, on the other hand, many questions about the extent of the ability of the balance sheet and the national economy, which recorded a growth of 1.3 percent in 2022, according to Bank Al-Maghrib’s latest report, to provide direct support in favor of needy groups? How do our economists imagine this support?
Important and overdue workshops
The expert and economic analyst, Idris Al-Finah, said, “This direct support will constitute a huge burden on the state budget, as it will cost billions of dirhams; But it remains a bribe, no matter how late we think about it, because it will eventually help move the Moroccan economy forward. The needy groups that will benefit from it will eventually become productive groups,” noting that “this support falls within the framework of the mechanisms for redistributing the goods that were produced, but we notice a disturbing decline in the rate of economic growth, which makes it difficult to carry out such programs.”
He stated, in his statement to the electronic newspaper Hespress, that “nevertheless, these workshops remain very important and necessary, due to the difficulty experienced by vulnerable groups as a result of inflation and the high cost of living; Therefore, thinking about accelerating it, as mentioned by King Mohammed VI, is a very positive step.” Because poverty is temporary in many cases.
In response to Hespress’s question about the estimated cost of these workshops and their impact on the state budget, the economist confirmed that “it is now difficult to determine the impact related to these workshops, because the numbers are exclusively linked to the national population census, the number of families that will benefit, and the amount of support, but economic estimates indicate that it will be high.” The cost,” he added, adding: “If we tried, for example, to adopt the same standards that were adopted in supporting families during the Corona pandemic, then the support amounted to 5 billion dirhams per year, and this is a very huge number, which reflects the importance of these workshops.”
For the time being, he said that “the value of this workshop is great economically and socially, because it is trying to restore dignity and preserve the dignity of the Moroccan citizen in general,” noting that he also “aims to correct a course that lasted 23 years, in which we were unable to get many Moroccan families out of all manifestations of fragility.” He explained, “Previous economic policies raised many questions about the principles of effectiveness and efficiency. Because despite all the efforts, it did not help in eliminating the manifestations of fragility quickly enough, and at the same time it did not contribute to facilitating the way to obtain high growth rates in the past recent years, which requires great seriousness from us, as stated in the king’s speech.
Support .. but temporarily?
For his part, economic expert Mahdi Fakir said, “The question related to the ability of Moroccan public finance to bear the consequences of direct support cannot be answered at present, neither in the negative nor in the affirmative, because the matter depends on precise quantitative criteria through which we will question the treasury’s capabilities to keep pace with this support.” He added, “There are also qualitative criteria, through which we will conclude that there is a budget that will be allocated and distributed to the beneficiaries; Here the answer will be arithmetic, but will this support achieve its desired goals? This is another question, which will be answered by the results, not the hypotheses.
Fakir said, while speaking to Hespress newspaper, that “this royal workshop is strategic, but the political and economic actor must be aware that it should not be turned into a rent, meaning that it should be temporary in the context of supporting the needy groups, rehabilitating them, and promoting them socially,” highlighting that “this The subsidy will constitute a locomotive for the creation of a solid and strong society in social and economic terms, as well as producers and consumers with significant incomes that will keep the Moroccan people from benefiting from public subsidies. And if we take the support temporarily, it will have results that contribute to economic growth on the short and long term.”
The economic analyst also mentioned that “it is unlikely that the decision-maker in Morocco thought of making this direct support permanent and non-stop, because this would make it not subsidy, but pure rent, and it would not be a productive gain in the end,” adding that “the discussion of canceling the clearing fund does not We must think about it now, because this fund has accumulated an important experience in the field of support that should be benefited from, and it must be transformed to benefit from it for the categories that deserve it. As for inflation, it will remain in light of the global crisis, and that is why we must make this direct support an opportunity to boost confidence in the Moroccan economy.”