Finance maintenance of the ELN in truce? A very difficult discussion

AFTER THE announcement of a ceasefire with the ELN guerrillas made by President Gustavo Petro, at the end of the third cycle of peace discussions in Cuba on Friday, June 9, a series of events have arisen that could alter the course of the negotiations for the beginning, on August 3, of the bilateral truce.

THE NEW CENTURY consulted various experts about what the impact will be on the progress of the process, after the ELN commander, alias “Antonio García”, affirmed that President Petro had been wrong when he said that the process would end in May 2025. armed conflict in Colombia.

Added to this is the guerrilla’s warning, in the voice of its chief negotiator “Pablo Beltrán”, that extortion and ‘withholdings’ will continue during the ceasefire. This coincided with the fact that this week, in Arauca, that guerrilla kidnapped two people, including the wife of a military member of the Quirón Task Force.

Additionally, last Friday another controversy arose, referring to who should contribute the resources to finance the ELN while the truce with the government is maintained, so that they do not have to resort to kidnappings, extortion and other illegal acts.

Given these three facts, the political analyst Ernesto Borda assured that proposing a ceasefire “from the microphones” allows room for misunderstandings. In addition, he stressed that there is the possibility that the peace agreements are interpreted unilaterally, strengthening the capacities of the ELN.

He was emphatic in assuring that “the ceasefire, the first thing that should mean is a cessation of hostilities against the civilian population. Meanwhile, the opposite is being done and the only thing that will happen is a state ceasefire in its fight against the ELN, while the guerrillas will continue to display their criminal activity”.

On the possibility of financing this illegal armed group while there is a truce with the Government, he assured that the ‘elenos’ are seeking legitimacy from the international community, which, in his opinion, is unfeasible and inadmissible.

“What the ELN is looking for is for the international community to recognize its international subjectivity, to recognize its belligerent status and, therefore, to see it as if it were an alternate state to the Colombian state,” Borda told this newspaper.

Strengthening negotiations

For the professor at the Javeriana University and director of the Conflict Analysis Resource Center (Cerac), Jorge Restrepo, the three events this week mentioned at the beginning in relation to the ELN process, instead of altering the peace negotiations between the Government and the guerrillas, strengthen them, precisely because of the rejection that they could generate in the population.

“Paradoxically, the negotiations are strengthened. Colombia needs there to be a rejection of the violence of the National Liberation Army, in particular that which affects civilians and has a terrorist content,” he stressed to THE NEW CENTURY.

He also stated that “the events of this week, even more so due to the proximity of the ceasefire on August 3, in my opinion, have united many in Colombia in a rejection of this violence. This rejection strengthens the negotiated solution, in addition to imposing duties and obligations on the ELN”.

Like Borda, Restrepo does not believe that paying guerrillas to prevent them from committing crimes in the country is appropriate, unless these armed groups definitively withdraw from the path of violence.

“Of course it is viable, but in a post-conflict context,” said the professor who is an expert in peace negotiations, and affirmed that international cooperation is a tool for the development of nations and not to finance organizations outside the law.

In any case, he assured that this task is the responsibility of Colombians, since the ELN is an active structure in this territory and that it is going through stages of peace talks with the Government.

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Improvisation and disorganization

The latest episodes between the government and the guerrillas demonstrate to former peace negotiator Juan Camilo Restrepo that there is profound disorganization and improvisation during the process led by the Petro administration. “All these facts affect the peace negotiations,” he said.

From his point of view, the national president was quick to announce that the end of the armed conflict with the ELN would take place in May 2025. “That, of course, gave rise to ‘Antonio García’ rectify it publicly. Only at that moment would they be building consultations with civil society and starting point five, which is the end of the conflict”, detailed.

He describes the fact as an “extremely serious” action, which harms the peace talks. The same negative effect was generated by the “unfortunate statements by ‘Pablo Beltrán’”, who has said that “whether or not there is a ceasefire”, the kidnappings will continue to occur from within the guerilla. Of course there were rejections and condemnations by Restrepo of such statements.

“This is a capital nonsense, precisely because the ceasefire seeks to preserve International Humanitarian Law. And one of the biggest grievances to this is extortive kidnapping”, he stated.

Likewise, it considers that the announcement of the creation of funds for the financing of the armed groups reflects that within the Government there is a “bad voice and a terrible preparation” to assume the process.

“It makes no sense to allocate a single penny of the public budget to whoever is committing crimes. So all this is a scenario of improvisation and disorder and many illegitimate spokespersons. I hope they rectify the course, because at this rate the peace dialogue with the ELN will not end in anything fruitful”, he pointed out.

The review of the protocols

The president of the Institute for Development and Peace Studies (Indepaz), Camilo González Posso, believes that it is necessary to review the protocols established in the ceasefire agreement before the measure is implemented in August. In this way, the margin of error will be reduced when making announcements to the population on relevant issues such as the end of the conflict in Colombia.

Referring to the alleged mistake of the president when announcing May 2025 as the date for the end of the conflict, he assured that it was just a misunderstanding that “it did not go further” and that, obviously, was rectified by “Antonio García”.

Referring to financing funds, he stressed that the issue has not been discussed at the table. Even so, he assured that it is an element of interest that should be debated by the public. “There are precedents about that, I was in the discussions in 1998, when he talked with the ELN. Several businessmen discussed this issue, but it did not progress, ”he said.

He also added that when talks were taking place in Havana to facilitate mechanisms that would contribute to peace in Colombia, then-President Álvaro Uribe put the proposal on the table. “A series of conditions were established that were not finally accepted. But right now (with Gustavo Petro leading the talks) it is not on the agenda.”

In what was blunt was because of the statements of alias “Pablo Beltrán”. In this regard, he pointed out that “it is a situation that will have to be clarified and specified in the missing protocols, because it is rejected from every point of view, by all sectors of Colombian society, for which reason the vacuum that was recognized cannot be prolonged.” by ‘Pablo Beltrán’ himself in statements he made from Havana”.

Regarding the possibility that the ELN continues kidnapping, González stressed that “it is an unsustainable practice, completely contrary to humanitarian law.”

Credibility and will

On whether the ELN guerrillas have credibility during this negotiation process, Juan Camilo Restrepo assured that there is very little that they can believe this armed group that, in the midst of a negotiation process to cease hostilities, continues to kidnap people. Despite this, he assures that we must trust the generated processes, for which he urged to correct statements such as those of “Pablo Beltrán”.

Instead, Jorge Restrepo stressed that, beyond credibility, there must be the will to make the process move forward normally. But he also said that the ELN must demonstrate with actions that it really seeks an end to the conflict. “Unlike now, when the peace negotiations with the Farc were held, this group showed good will, freeing kidnapped persons and avoiding attacks against the public force and the civilian population”, saidcongregation.