Five world powers united against nuclear proliferation – Pierre Haski

Five countries have just signed an appeal to declare that “war must be avoided”. It may seem trivial, but if the five countries in question are the historical powers equipped with the atomic weapon, among other things at a time marked by strong international tensions, then things change.

The five powers – China, the United States, France, Russia and the United Kingdom – published a joint declaration on January 3 stating that a nuclear war “cannot be won and must not be unleashed”, pledging to keep the weapon nuclear power “for defensive purposes, for deterrence and for the prevention of war”, thus excluding any offensive use.

Reiterating this concept is not superfluous, especially considering that the United States has threatened to respond vigorously in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, that Washington and Beijing risk conflict in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, and that China it is modernizing its nuclear arsenal by developing new types of supersonic carriers.

The fact that in this climate the five powers feel they have a particular responsibility and are able to agree on a common text is reassuring, even if this does not mean that they have resolved their differences.

The intentions are important, but the text applies above all to the commitment by the five countries to “avoid the continuation of nuclear dissemination”, that is, to prevent other countries from building nuclear weapons.

Naturally, the thought immediately goes to Iran, at the moment in which a complex and interminable negotiation is underway to try to save the 2015 agreement. The five signatories of the text participate in the Vienna negotiation, which however fails to put together the pieces after the withdrawal of the United States wanted by Donald Trump and the resumption of the uranium enrichment program by Tehran.

China is considered by the United States as the “weak link” of the international coalition as it maintains a close link with Iran in disregard of sanctions, but for the moment it aligns itself with the international goal of preventing Iran from equipping itself of the atomic weapon.

A communiqué is worth nothing without political will, and everything will depend on relations between the great powers. In the event of degradation or even conflict, the current consensus will become unsustainable. The statement mentions “the ultimate goal, a world without nuclear weapons”, but we are still a long way from this scenario.

For the moment, the most realistic goal is to save the non-proliferation structure, already severely tested by the fact that in addition to the five signatories, there are at least four other countries in possession of the atomic weapon: India, Pakistan, North Korea. and (no longer a secret) Israel.

Pushing these countries to give up the deterrent weapon will be impossible, and this is also true for North Korea despite staunch opposition from the United States and its Asian allies. The risk, on the other hand, is that each new member of the “club” will produce new ones, as happened with Pakistan after India tested its first atomic bomb in 1998.

As long as the nuclear weapon serves as a life insurance for all sorts of regimes, it will be impossible to imagine its disappearance. If nothing else, the five historians feel the need to send an exemplary message. It is already something.

(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)