The crisis in Ukraine is holding back the recovery. “Economic activity will slow down, and for Italy the revision with respect to the latest estimates of the European Commission (4.1% ed) could be significant, and inflation will continue to rise” as a consequence of the war. Economy Minister Daniele Franco said at the Bloomberg Italy Capital Markets Forum, explaining that at a European level “the risk is that the recovery is endangered by shocks in the financial markets”.
Substantial downward revisions possible
“What should we prepare for” in connection with the war in Ukraine? “The economy will slow down, for Italy the downward revisions of the European Commission’s estimates could be substantial,” explained Franco. The Ukrainian crisis, in fact, “can affect our economy through various channels”. If in fact the direct exposure of Italian companies to Russia and Ukraine is limited, the minister recalled, “the economic and strategic dependence is considerable”. In general, however, “the macro outlook remains positive and it is essential that the economic recovery does not lose momentum”. This is why we find ourselves “at a critical moment for policy makers”, who must coordinate efforts in this direction.
Pnrr: ok Ecofin with an installment of 21 billion for Italy
Meanwhile, the Economic and Financial Committee of the EU, the technical arm of the Council of Finance Ministers, has given its green light to the disbursement to Italy of the first installment of 21 billion of the NRP. According to what has been learned, after having also received this green light, the final ok for the payment of the installment should be announced by the Commission by the end of the month.