This year’s No. 16 typhoon “Olu” formed in the ocean to the east of the Philippines on the afternoon of September 23, and rapidly intensified from a strong tropical storm level to a super typhoon level from the evening to the night of the 24th. At 17:00 on the 25th, its center (super typhoon level) was located on the northwestern Pacific Ocean about 135 kilometers northeast of Manila, Philippines, and the maximum wind force near the center was 16 (55 m/s).
It is expected that “Olu” will move north-westward at a speed of about 25 kilometers per hour, and will make landfall on the eastern coast of Luzon Island in the Philippines this evening (48-55 m/s, 15-16, strong typhoon level) or super typhoon level), passing through Luzon Island tonight, the intensity has weakened,From the morning to the morning of the 26th, it entered the central and eastern waters of the South China Sea, and then moved westward, gradually approaching the eastern coast of Vietnam, and the intensity will be strengthened., landed on the east coast of Vietnam from the morning to the morning of the 28th (48-52 m/s, 15-16, strong typhoon level or super typhoon level), and the intensity rapidly weakened after landing. The Central Meteorological Observatory issued a blue typhoon warning on the morning of September 25.
Gale Forecast:Affected by the cold air and “Aolu”, from the night of the 25th to 14:00 on the 28th, the western coast of Taiwan Island, the coast of Fujian, the coast of Guangdong, the coast of Hainan Island, the Taiwan Strait, the Bashi Strait, most of the South China Sea, Beibu Gulf, Qiongzhou There are strong winds of magnitude 6 to 8 and gusts of magnitude 9 to 10 in the waters near the Strait and Sansha Islands. Among them, the winds in the central waters of the South China Sea, the Xisha Islands, and the waters near the Zhongsha Islands can reach magnitude 9 to 13, gusts of magnitude 14 to 15, and the center of the typhoon. The winds in the nearby sea areas and areas that passed through were 14 to 16, with gusts of 17 and above.
Rain forecast:From the 26th to the 28th, there were heavy to heavy rains and local heavy rains in Hainan Island, Sansha Islands and other places; the cumulative precipitation in the above-mentioned areas could reach 80-120 mm, and the local area was more than 200 mm; the maximum hourly rainfall was 30-50 mm.
Weather disaster risk forecast:From the 26th to the 28th, the meteorological risk of flash floods and geological disasters in eastern Hainan Island and other places is relatively high, and some small and medium-sized rivers have meteorological risks close to the warning water level.
Similar typhoon cases in history
In recent years, typhoons that are more similar to typhoon “Olu” are the 21st typhoon “Butterfly” in 2013 and the 22nd typhoon “Huangao” in 2020. details as follows:
(1) Typhoon “Butterfly” formed in the east-central area of the South China Sea on the afternoon of September 27, 2013. It crossed the central area of the South China Sea from east to west and landed on the coast of Vietnam (typhoon level). During the period, strong wind and rain brought to the South my country Sea and Hainan, resulting in 14 deaths and 48 missing in Hainan; 14 people died and 2 were missing in Vietnam due to the disaster.
(2) Typhoon “Huan Gao” was generated on the afternoon of November 9, 2020 in the ocean to the east of the Philippines, landed in the Philippines (strong typhoon level) and passed through the central waters of the South China Sea, and then landed on the coast of Vietnam (strong tropical storm level, see Fig. 4). “Huan Gao” caused 101 deaths and 10 missing in the Philippines due to the disaster.
(Editor in charge: Zhang Minglu)