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Source: Voice of Securities Daily
On September 24, the website of the National Bureau of Statistics released data that the price of live pigs continued to rise slightly. Analysts said that the price of live pigs rose slightly, and the follow-up will maintain a high level of consolidation, which will be beneficial to pig breeding enterprises. Some practitioners also said that multiple factors such as African swine fever, the new crown epidemic, feed price increases, import decline, and catering recovery have supported pig prices, and they are optimistic about the follow-up market.
Pig prices rise slightly after dumping
Lack of pigs is still a high probability phenomenon
On September 6, the reporter visited many supermarkets in Changsha, Hunan, and saw that the price of pork was generally around 40 yuan/kg, and the price of some chilled meat was 48 yuan/kg. On September 24, the reporter visited the above-mentioned places again and found that the price of pork did not change much compared with the previous one. The general retail price fluctuated around 40 yuan/kg, and the price of some chilled meat products rose slightly, fluctuating around 50 yuan/kg. .
After several rounds of national stockpiling, pork prices still rose slightly. Are there any farms that are reluctant to sell or fatten again?
Wen’s sharesWhen replying to investors, he said, “The average weight of our company’s slaughtered pigs is relatively stable, and the average weight of a single head is stable at about 235 to 240 jin. In terms of sales, our company has always adhered to stable production, not betting on the market, and in accordance with the established slaughter plan. In terms of price, the domestic live pig market is a fully competitive market, and the sales price of our company’s pigs follows the market. For market participants, the release of government pork reserves plays a more policy and emotional guiding role. It will help the market to restore rationality, rationally arrange production and operation, and maintain the normal rhythm of seedlings and slaughtering.”
The reporter sorted out, the August sales briefings of many aquaculture listed companies show that the weight of the slaughter is about 120 kilograms, which belongs to the standard weight of live pigs. in,Zhengbang TechnologyIn the August sales briefing, he admitted that the weight of the slaughter is about 75 kg. Long Tengjiang, chief researcher of Tengjiang Investment, speculated to the reporter on the above situation, “If the average weight of the slaughter is below 120 kg, it means that the farm is not reluctant to sell the slaughter or the secondary fattening. The weight of some farms is significantly lower than 120 kg, It may be due to operating pressure to resell piglets or shelf pigs to recover funds. It can be seen that the general shortage of pigs in the downstream market is a high probability phenomenon.”
Multiple factors support pig prices
Listed companies plan to increase production
The rise in pork prices has been passed on to the downstream catering sector. At the Mao Shilao store near Changsha Changjun Bilingual Middle School, which sells buns every day, the clerk Guo Dong told reporters, “Fresh pork is needed to make fresh pork buns. Now that pork prices are at a high level, we plan to increase the price of each big meat bun. 50 cents to cover the cost.” The Laohuo Palace near Pozi Street in Changsha also said that the price of fresh big meat buns has increased by 1 yuan per piece, from 5 yuan per piece to 6 yuan per piece. Qingquan Pavilion near Xiahe Street in Changsha said that the production costs of fresh meat buns, simmered wheat, and quicksand buns have risen to varying degrees, and procurement cost control is being carried out.
Tang Ren ShenThe staff also confirmed the increase in the price of live pigs, “The price of live pigs has risen in recent months, and the pig industry as a whole has entered a profitable range, and our profitability has also improved significantly.”
When analyzing the reasons for the rise in live pig prices, the above-mentioned people said, “From the perspective of domestic breeding, the alternation of African swine fever and new crown epidemics will have a certain impact on the farms, requiring additional hardware and personnel investment, and the market entry threshold has been continuously raised. The farmers are in a state of flowing out of the market as a whole. From the perspective of overseas imports, currently affected by factors such as inflationary pressure, poor logistics, and feed shortages, the number of imported frozen meat continues to decline, and the possibility of further decline cannot be ruled out. In terms of feed, feed prices are affected by the rise in raw materials such as soybean meal, corn, and wheat. Major feed mills have raised prices for several rounds, and free-range farmers lack motivation to expand production. Look, the number of holidays, the start of autumn school and the start of the season of cured meat and bacon have improved the speed of delivery of meat products. Based on the above situation, we are optimistic about the future market. “
How will the price of pigs be interpreted in the future? Su Bin, head of Caixin Futures Investment Service Center, interprets the relevant data of the National Bureau of Statistics and introduces the current situation, “The overall price of pigs has mainly increased steadily and slightly, and the price of pigs has not dropped significantly after the Mid-Autumn Festival, indicating that the market price has certain support. After deducting feed costs from the current pig price, the fattening profit has increased. It is expected that the futures and spot prices of live pigs will maintain a high level of consolidation, which will be beneficial to pig breeding enterprises.” He further added, “At present, the number of pigs received in the slaughterhouse is relatively small, and the operating rate is obviously insufficient. , some small slaughterhouses have expanded losses and have plans to stop work.”
Wen’s shares,Muyuan shares、New Ng Fung、Lihua sharesOther aquaculture listed companies have also expressed similar views in recent surveys, and have a positive attitude towards the future market. At the same time, some aquaculture listed companies have announced that they are or have raised funds to make corresponding arrangements to maintain stable operations or expand production capacity. On September 14, Muyuan Co., Ltd. announced that the non-public offering application was approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. It plans to raise 5 billion to 6 billion yuan, which will be mainly used to supplement working capital and maintain the company’s stable operation. On September 20, Wen’s shares announced that the registration application for the public issuance of corporate bonds to professional investors was approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the public issuance of corporate bonds of no more than 3 billion yuan will be used to supplement liquidity funds, operate and expand its farms. production related matters. On September 20, Lihua shares raised funds from the non-public offering, and the actual controller Cheng Lili subscribed in full for 1.27 billion yuan. In addition to replenishing liquidity funds, this non-public offering was mainly used to build the headquarters base and expand its subsidiaries. Pig and yellow feather chicken breeding, slaughter, deep processing capacity, etc.
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