While the U.S. has not stopped Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Biden administration seems to see it coming and knows it in great detail.
In the weeks before the Feb. 24 invasion, as Russia assembled troops and military equipment on its neighbor’s border, senior U.S. officials warned that an attack was imminent, despite repeated denials from the Kremlin.
Even the Ukrainian government sometimes sees the build-up as a bluff rather than a precursor to war at a time when Russia threatens Ukraine from afar.
Reporters have asked President Biden why he is so sure Putin has decided to invade Ukraine.
“We have significant intelligence capabilities,” he said.
President Biden also claimed he knew exactly what President Putin was brewing — down to the exact date.
It was as if U.S. intelligence had access to the minds of a foreign leader notorious for his secrecy.
So, is the US bluffing or does it really know about Russia’s plans?
Possibility of inside ghosts in the Kremlin
As a former senior spy, Putin knows the importance of intelligence and minimizing the ability of your enemies, real or imaginary, to understand your plans.
He reportedly still relies on the tactics he learned as a KGB agent.
To this day, he does not believe in technology because he knows that the CIA and NSA in the United States have extraordinary hacking capabilities.
“It is said that he used e-mail very, very little, and he used the phone very selectively,” said Calder Walton, a historian and intelligence expert at Harvard Kennedy School.
The widely reproduced photo of him sitting at the comically long table meeting world leaders and his own team is the perfect metaphor for a man trying to distance himself from a threat.
However, despite these safeguards, the US appears to have known about his invasion plans early on and was confident enough to make their assessment public.
According to Mr. Walton, the US may be relying on a range of sources.
“I’m confident to say that it’s not a single source, but probably a combination: maybe from people, people close to Putin … old industry technology, espionage, recruiting spies,” he said.
But there are other, more modern tricks in the current intelligence toolbox, according to Mr. Walton.
These include “technical intelligence gathering,” which often relies on satellite imagery and “open source intelligence.”
The technology leverages the wealth of data now available from commercial satellites and even social media to determine the enemy’s next move.
The U.S. once penetrated inside Russia
Espionage between the United States and Russia and its predecessor, the Soviet Union, has a long history.
During much of the Cold War, double agents and undercover agents operated in both countries.
In 2010, long after the end of the Cold War was declared, the FBI captured a network of Russian intelligence operatives who were living seemingly ordinary lives on the outskirts of America on deep undercover missions.
However, the most recent example of so-called Russian espionage with influence is the 2016 US election.
According to the U.S. intelligence community, President Putin ordered operations that harmed Hillary Clinton’s campaign, boosted Donald Trump’s win rate, and increased social discord in the United States.
Calder Walton said intelligence about Mr Putin’s alleged involvement was provided to the United States by a Russian informant.
“The key intelligence to say it was directly ordered by Putin … is a source from a man who was said to have been taken out of Russia under the protection of the CIA,” he said.
Inside the FBI, the acronym used to describe people’s motives for spying for a foreign power is MICE: money, ideology, coercion, and ego.
Mr. Walton said trying to lure someone in Moscow could be troublesome, so the U.S. would likely try to do it by reaching out to Russian government officials placed in foreign capitals.
But those who work abroad for the Kremlin, such as diplomats, may also be spying for their home country.
The United States recently expelled a group of Russians who worked for the Russian mission at United Nations headquarters in New York.
“Russia has a long tradition of using diplomatic cover, especially at the United Nations, to conduct espionage and recruit foreign agents,” Mr Walton said.
“It has to be said that Western governments are almost certainly doing the same.”
The Great Purge and Paranoia of the Kremlin
While the U.S. knew many details of Russia’s plans to wage war, many were surprised that the invasion went so poorly.
Despite massive investments in its military over the past decade, the reputation of the once formidable Russian military has taken a beating.
Instead of the quick victory many had predicted, it was held back by the stubborn resistance of a much smaller country.
This made intelligence gathering during war much easier.
Russian forces appear to be fighting using unsecured communications that allow Ukrainians to intercept their messages and then pinpoint forces and high-value targets.
Ukraine has managed to target and reportedly kill seven Russian generals in the month-long conflict at a rate of attrition not seen since World War II.
With his troops in trouble, Putin’s richest ally under sanctions, and information leaked to his enemies, Putin may be getting nervous.
According to the Institute of War Research, Russian leaders are reportedly conducting an internal purge of military officers and intelligence personnel.
“If he loses and looks weak, it’s also disastrous domestically,” Fiona Hill, the former Russia director at the National Security Council, told Meet the Press. , not just abroad.”
Putin has filled his inner circle with people connected to Russia’s intelligence services who he may now view as a potential threat to his leadership.
“There have of course been coups before, and more importantly, those failed coups always involved Soviet intelligence in Russia,” Mr Walton said.
“The KGB was instrumental in the failed coup attempt to overthrow Gorbachev in 1991, and the KGB was instrumental in the fall of Khrushchev early in the Cold War.”
However, Mr. Walton said Putin’s iron-fisted control of Russia’s intelligence services meant a coup against him would be hard to come by.
“He controlled them in a way that Soviet leaders didn’t even in Soviet times. Those were his strengths,” he said.
“I am concerned that the coup and Russia’s history show this is unlikely to succeed.”
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