Iranian missiles on Iraq set the world even more inflamed – Pierre Haski

In the night between 12 and 13 March, a dozen missiles hit a neighborhood on the outskirts of Erbil, the capital of Iranian Kurdistan, not far from the new United States consulate. The toll is a few injured, nothing dramatic, and the consulate has not been hit. But then why talk about it? It is a matter of context, which with the war in Ukraine in the background becomes disturbing.

First of all we must consider the fact that the missiles arrive from Iran, a country bordering Iraq to the north: the attack was claimed by the guardians of the revolution, the armed wing of the Islamic Republic, with a statement presenting the offensive as a retaliation for a recent Israeli raid in Syria in which two members of the radical organization died.

The guardians point the finger at Israel and the United States, stating – the symbols are important – that the action took place at half past one in the morning, the same time the Americans had eliminated the head of the organization, the General Ghassan Soleimani, with a missile launched on Baghdad in 2020.

A matter of context, we said. At the same time as this affair, negotiations are taking place in Vienna to put the Iran nuclear deal back on track from which Donald Trump had withdrawn the United States. Last week the text was almost ready for signature, but Russia put forward a last-minute condition that has no reference to nuclear power but is clearly linked to Ukraine.

Moscow expects trade with Iran in all areas to be excluded from the sanctions affecting Russia. The diplomats who have been involved in this extremely complex negotiation for months are exasperated. According to a European, Russia has taken the deal hostage. The order came from above, surprising even the Russian delegation.

The Europeans are trying to save the deal. French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz talked about it on March 12 with Vladimir Putin, because the window for a good outcome risks closing quickly and Iranian nuclear power could return to the center of a crisis.

Launching missiles does not necessarily complicate the matter, as long as Russia is willing to lift its veto. All the other partners – US, Chinese, European and Iranian – agree on the signing of a text according to which Iran would go back on the nuclear violations that bring it closer to nuclear weapons while the United States would gradually cancel the unilateral sanctions that seriously penalize Tehran.

However, the missile episode shows that part of the Iranian regime is not in favor of detente with Washington. In this sense, we must not forget that the guardians of the revolution have been working alongside Russia in Syria since 2014.

Without venturing into the conspiracy theory that all the world‘s conflicts are awakening simultaneously to undermine the West, the existence of a flammable international climate is undeniable. The Americans know this well and for this reason they have not reacted to the launch of the missiles, whereas at another time they would have responded promptly. This will certainly not be the last provocation.

(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)