After former President Donald Trump’s victory in the preliminary elections in New Hampshire, the odds increase that he will become the Republican presidential candidate for the November 2024 elections.
Not only do the polls predict real possibilities of Trump regaining the White House, but politicians and business leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos have also pointed to the New York Times that the world elite already counts on a victory for the Republican magnate.
Faced with this scenario, voices warning of a return of Trump are increasing in Europe. In an interview with the media France 2, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde called a possible Trump election victory a “clear threat” to Europe. Similarly, in a speech before the European Parliament in mid-January, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said that Europe will be more alone than ever if, in 2024, the slogan of “United States” returns with Trump first.
“How can Europe prepare for a Trump 2.0 scenario? Europe must become a strong actor on a military level and be able to deal with security issues in its own neighborhood,” said Sudha David-Wilp, director of the Berlin office of the German Marshall Fund, in an interview with DW.
In addition, he insists, Europe must strengthen itself economically to prepare for possible protectionist measures in a second Trump administration. For his part, the foreign policy spokesman of the conservative CDU/CSU parliamentary faction, Jürgen Hardt, fears that Germany is not well prepared. “In the last three years, we did not do enough to help Joe Biden demonstrate that his cooperative style with Europe is more successful than Trump’s confrontational style,” he insists in statements to DW.
Above all, in relation to Ukraine, fears of a second Trump administration are great. The candidate’s statements about whether he will end the war and aid are contradictory.
Sudha David-Wilp believes that regardless of who wins in November, most Americans are convinced that Europe should take on a greater burden regarding military aid and reconstruction of Ukraine, since the country is located on the European continent.
In European capitals, Trump’s relationship with NATO is also a concern. During his first administration, it was barely possible to prevent him from abandoning the military alliance.
In January, Trump told the media that he would only militarily support European NATO allies that “treat properly” the United States. “NATO has taken advantage of our country. European countries have benefited from it,” he said.
In the opinion of Josef Braml, an expert on American politics, Trump sees Europe as an enemy, so Europe must present itself as a united actor. Braml is betting on money in order to unify the different interests in the Old Continent: he believes that it is necessary to contract joint debts, financially support individual countries and impose conditions on them in return.
The expert argues that a European debt fund would also serve to pay for its own defense, in case Donald Trump decided to withdraw Europe’s nuclear shield. In the opinion of German politician Hardt, this would force Europe to think about expanding its nuclear arsenal.
A possible re-election of Trump would not only test transatlantic relations but also European solidarity.