More rain and less snow Logistics will cost 16% more

Belluno, in the upper part of the province, 14 days less useful for skiing. The zoom on Nevegal highlights the need to rethink the business

BELLUNO. Going into reality, the study on the impact of climate change in the Belluno area has offered some practical examples of what will happen in the near future. There are two reference time scenarios: one centered on 2026, the year of the Cortina Olympics, and the other on 2050, that is the period considered consistent with the ability to adapt to climate change.

“The model”, explained Professor Giupponi, “shows us an increase in precipitation and extreme events, while intense wind phenomena should not occur as frequently”. Scientists analyzed the costs of commuting and moving goods to four destinations, estimating the damage caused by the hydrogeological instability on road infrastructures, applied to maps of the Belluno industrial concentration. «Over the course of thirty years», Giupponi estimates, «these damages will increase the costs of logistics by 16-17%».

Turning to winter sports, the reference points are the presence on the ground of at least 30 centimeters of snow and the days in which you can “make” snow, considering that 100 days of skiing are needed to consider the business. “The indicators show us that in the near future the 100 days in the north will still be there, but with a marked decrease in the days with 30 cm of snow: about 14. In the lower part of the province, the business threshold is not guaranteed but the decrease in the presence of snow on land will stop at 5 days ».

The study also zoomed in on Nevegal, highlighting its climatic limits, but also its potential due to its proximity to the plain: «An analysis of investments in skiing is not up to us. We can say that on the Nevegal the presence of snow will be increasingly uncertain and it is worth asking whether it is worth investing in classic skiing, but there are several other directions in which the investment could be profitable », Giupponi warns.

“The presence of snow will be in sharp decline,” added Mercogliano. «The Belluno area will instead be affected by an increase in rainfall, including extreme rains across the province without major differences. Depending on which mitigation policies will be adopted, the scenario may be more or less serious. The purpose of our study is not to create terrorism, but to explain what climate change entails in a sensitive area. Adaptation involves complex decisions ».

But in light of these data, isn’t the real risk that companies decide to leave the province of Belluno? “They should decide to stay, instead”, concluded the director of Confindustria, Andrea Ferrazzi, “because we have decided to tackle the problem”.