[Epoch Times October 06, 2021]Hello everyone, and welcome to the “News Talk” on Wednesday (October 6). This is Lin Lan (host). Today’s guests are current affairs commentators Qin Peng and Professor Xie Tian.
Today’s focus: The trade war 2.0 version reveals its true meaning, not only the US and China are fighting! A multi-party showdown; without discussing the second-phase agreement, does the US see through the nature of the CCP? Excluding some tariffs, which products will be exempted? Even with Japanese military planes bypassing Taiwan, the CCP will transfer internal pressure?
US Trade Representative Dai Qi delivered a speech on the Biden administration’s trade policy towards China on October 4, which caused different interpretations. Some people interpreted it as the trade war to cool down, but others interpreted it to the contrary. At the same time, senior Chinese and American diplomatic officials will hold talks in Switzerland today, with the goal of managing the competitive relationship between the two sides.
So what signal did Dai Qi’s speech release? Is it possible to change the trade policy of “Chuangui”? Let’s discuss it together today.
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[Thefirstannouncementofthetradepolicytradewar20withChinarevealsthetruth?】
In his speech on October 4, Dai Qi, the US Trade Representative, first expounded the Biden administration’s trade policy toward China. She reviewed the history of US-China economic and trade relations and criticized the CCP’s non-market-oriented trade practices.
Dai Qi said that the Biden administration will start from four aspects and adjust its trade policy with China. First, discuss the implementation of the first phase of the agreement with China; second, initiate targeted tariff elimination procedures; third, be concerned about the CCP’s non-market trade practices that are not resolved by the first phase of the agreement; fourth, cooperate with allies, Establish trade rules.
However, Dai Qi also said that instead of seeking to intensify trade tensions with China, he would seek “re-linking” and the two sides would “coexist for a long time.”
1. Professor Xie, what is the opportunity and purpose of Dai Qi’s speech?
[WillMeiti’s”re-linking”theoryof”Sichuanreturntoworship”change?】
2. Professor Xie and Qin Peng, is there any signal in the speech that the trade policy toward China that has been preserved during Trump’s (Trump) era and that the “Sichuan return to worship” is likely to change?
In the question and answer session, Dai Qi mentioned that it is not realistic for the two major economies to stop trade. The United States must think about “what is the goal of finding some kind of re-linking”. This is the first time that the United States has proposed “re-linking”. How to interpret?
[Stagereviewthesuccessorfailureofthetradewar?】
3. The Chinese Communist Party’s mouthpiece media interpreted Dai Qi’s speech, especially her statement of “re-linking”, thinking that this shows that the United States realizes that the trade war has failed and therefore wants to adjust its policy.
In fact, this kind of argument has been in the past few years. They believe that China’s industrial chain cluster has advantages that other countries cannot replace, and the United States cannot completely exclude China from the industrial chain and supply chain. From the data point of view, in August this year, the US trade deficit with China in goods increased by 10.8%.
Professor Xie, if you make a staged assessment, do you think that the US trade war from the strategic to the tactical level is a failure?
4. There is a view that, in fact, the two parties in the trade war are not just the United States and China. In the United States, there is a wrestling between American capital and conservative forces; on a global scale, it is a wrestling between American domestic industries and global capital.
Qin Peng, what do you think of this view? How does this struggle affect the success or failure of the trade war?
[WhataretheconsequencesoftheCCP’sfailuretocompletethefirstphaseoftheagreement?】
5. Dai Qi mentioned four ways the United States has adjusted its trade policy with China. Let’s do some detailed analysis.
The first point she said is that she will soon have a meeting with Vice Premier Liu He to discuss the implementation of the US-China “Phase One” trade agreement. According to the agreement, Beijing agrees that within two years of the agreement’s entry into force, in 2017 On the basis of the increase in purchases of US$200 billion in U.S. agricultural products and manufactured goods, energy and services, according to estimates by Chad Bown, a senior researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the CCP has so far only achieved 62% of the target.
Qin Peng, according to the text of the agreement, what are the consequences of the CCP’s breach of contract? Do you think it will be strictly enforced? Is the trade war escalating locally?
[Exclude some tariffs? Which products will be exempted]
6. Dai Qi mentioned that “targeted” tariff exclusion procedures will be launched to ensure that tariffs will not harm the United States‘ own economic interests.
However, we know that when the Trump administration imposed tariffs at that time, it went through hearings and exclusion procedures, and has already implemented tariff exemptions for many products that may affect the interests of American consumers.
Professor Xie, which products do you think may be subject to further tariff exemption? Why? The pros and cons to the United States and China?
[Nottalkingaboutthesecondphaseagreement?Hopelessforstructuralreforms?】
7. Dai Qi mentioned in her speech that the United States will continue to pay attention to the CCP’s non-market-oriented trade practices; and she also believes that the first phase of the trade agreement reached by the Trump administration is insufficient and has not prevented the CCP from continuing to subsidize solar energy, steel and other industries. , Nor did it prevent the CCP from continuing to shape the economy according to its ideas.
However, Dai Qi mentioned in the Q&A session that he did not intend to negotiate the second phase of the agreement.
However, we know that in the past, the Trump administration was prepared to require the CCP to make changes to some deep-seated structural issues during the second phase of the agreement.
Qin Peng and Professor Xie, if there is no overall negotiation, do you think the United States has enough leverage to curb the CCP’s non-market trade practices? In addition, does this mean that the intensity, objectives and scope of the planned trade war in the Trump era will change?
Dai Qi mentioned “long-term coexistence”, but the CCP’s “zero-sum game” is “life and death”.
[SeniorUSandChinesediplomatsmeetagaintopreventmisjudgmentandcommunication?】
Dai Qi mentioned a sentence, the White House believes that “competition needs to be managed responsibly and to ensure fair competition.”
Today, U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan will also meet in Switzerland with Yang Jiechi, the highest-level diplomat of the CCP and Director of the Foreign Affairs Office of the CCP Central Committee. The theme is also “Managing Competition Responsibly.”
Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post quoted an official with knowledge of the situation as saying that this meeting can be seen as an attempt to rebuild communication channels and implement the consensus reached by the leaders of the two countries.
8. Qin Peng, the first few formal diplomatic meetings between the United States and China this year, the results were all unhappy, including the call between Xi Jinping and Biden in September, and differences were greater than consensus. So the goal of this meeting between Sullivan and Yang Jiechi may be What? To rebuild communication channels to prevent misjudgments, the United States implements the “competition guardrail” policy?
[The”ruleofthirds”inUSrelationswithChinawhohastheCCPrefusedtomakeconcessions?】
9. Professor Xie, the current principle of the United States‘ relations with China is the “rule of thirds.” There are problems of cooperation, competition in some fields, and confrontation in some areas. However, the CCP does not accept this principle. Cooperation; do you think there is room for compromise between the two parties? Who is more likely to give in? If no one makes concessions, what are the prospects for US-China relations?
Also, how likely do you think Xi Jinping will go abroad to meet with Biden before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China?
[TheChineseCommunistPartyevendisruptedtheJapanesemilitaryplanetoshiftinternalpressure?】
Since October 1, the CCP has sent about 150 military aircraft into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone for five consecutive days. According to statistics, there were 38 sorties on October 1, 39 sorties on October 2, and 16 sorties on October 3. There were 56 sorties on October 4, breaking the record of a single Japanese military aircraft disrupting Taiwan in a row, which caused many protests in the international community, and then dropped to one sortie on October 5.
10. Qin Peng, what is the reason for the sudden big move in Beijing? Is it really directed at Taiwan, or is it to shift the focus?
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