Register once again downward trend in home sales in the first quarter of 2023: -8.3% compared to the same quarter of 2022. There were almost 167 thousand residential units sold in this first quarter of the year, about fifteen thousand less than in the same period of 2022. The Omi statistics on the residential real estate market relating to the first part of 2023, from which it is evident that, after the peak of real estate sales in 2021, the trend is reversing.
Real estate sales in the Italian capitals
At the national level, the home sales decrease more in the capital municipalities (-10.2% and almost 6,000 homes sold less than in the first quarter of 2022), and also undergo a sharp decline in smaller municipalities (-7.4%, with around 9,000 homes sold less than in the first quarter quarter of 2022). The highest drops are recorded in the capital municipalities of the North West with a negative rate of 12.5%. The decrease in trade is widespread in all areas of the country with the sole exception of the Islands, an area with the only positive trend rate, +1.1%, which derives, in particular, from the increase of 2.3% in the provincial capitals . To the North East and Center the negative variation is more marked (respectively -10.3% and -11.5%) while al Nord Ovest the decline stands at -9.1%, driven by the losses recorded in the provincial capitals (-12.5%). In the South, on the other hand, the decrease is slighter, -5.1%, an area in which a more pronounced decrease is observed in the provincial capitals, -8.7%.
The surface area of houses bought and sold in Italy
The average surface area of homes trades in this quarter, compared to the first quarter of 2022, decreased slightly by 1.6 m2 and stood at around 105.4 m2. The decrease in trade, as emerges from the comparison with the same quarter of 2022, involves the largest dimensional cuts and is more accentuated as the size of the homes increases. In particular, homes in the 50 to 85 m2 class have a variation of -6.6%, those in the size range between 85 m2 and 115 m2 decrease by 10.2%, homes in the size range between 115 and 145 m2 suffer a drop of 10% and finally large homes, with surfaces over 145 m2, recorded a drop of almost 12%. Small-sized homes, on the other hand, are growing slightly.
Home loans and interest rates
The data referring to the share of the home purchases by natural persons financed by mortgages with registered mortgage on the property sold: 41.8% against 42.9% in the previous quarter, in constant decline in the last year. The average interest rate, established at the signing of the mortgage deed, is still on the increase, exceeding 4% in this first quarter of 2023, 76 basis points more than the previous quarter, 219 basis points more in one year. Debt capital, again contracted by natural persons to purchase homes, amounts to approximately 8.7 billion euros, more than 3.7 billion euros less than in the same quarter of 2022 (-30%).
House prices in Italy according to Istat
In Italy, according to ISTAT, i house prices in the fourth quarter of 2022 show a growth rate of +2.8% compared to the same quarter of 2021. The growth trend of the IPAB can be attributed both to the prices of new homes which increased by 4.6%, accelerating compared to the previous quarter (it was +2.9%), and to existing house prices (which account for more than 80% of the aggregate index) which increase by 2.4%, decelerating slightly compared to the third quarter of 2022 (it was +2.9%).
Economic survey of the housing market in Italy
Finally, for Italy, the climate of the residential real estate market in the first quarter of 2023 detected at the real estate agents through the Economic survey of the housing market in Italycan be summarized in the following points.
- 61.7 percent of the agents interviewed reported one substantial price stability of sales in the first quarter of 2023, share down compared to the previous survey (it was 64.9%); the balance between assessments of increases and decreases in real estate prices returned just positive (to 0.9 percentage points) due to the effect of a larger percentage of agents who perceive an increase in real estate prices, rising to 19.6 per cent (from 17. 1).
- The share of agencies it has sold at least one house in the first quarter it decreased (to 84.2 per cent from 87.8 in the fourth).
- Lo medium discount on sales prices with respect to the seller’s initial requests decreased again (to 8.2 per cent, from 8.8).
- I sales times fell (at 5.5 months from 6.1), recording a new low since the start of the survey.
- The share of traders reporting difficulty in obtaining the loan by buyers has risen to around 30 per cent, the highest value since the beginning of 2015. About half of the agents report that among the main causes of termination of the assignment to sell there is a value of the offers received considered too low from the seller; a similar fraction indicates asking prices judged too high by buyers.
- The share of mortgage-financed sales mortgage market fell further, especially in the major metropolitan areas, reaching 64.1 per cent overall (from 65.3; table). The ratio between the amount of the loan and the value of the property is high, around 76 per cent, albeit slightly down on the previous survey.
- The agent expectations for the second quarter they became slightly less negative than both their reference market and the national one: the balance between expectations of improvement and worsening passed to -21.2 and -25.8 percentage points, respectively from -25, 6 and -28.3 in the previous survey.
- For just under two-thirds of operators theconsumer price trends will negatively affect the demand for housing and sales prices.