As of: January 19, 2024 7:30 p.m
The political mood in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is slipping further to the right. According to a Forsa survey commissioned by the “Ostsee-Zeitung” (“OZ”), the AfD is the strongest political force in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The SPD comes in by far in second place.
Tailwind for the right-wing populists ahead of the local and European elections at the beginning of June: According to a Forsa survey commissioned by the “Ostsee-Zeitung”, the AfD is currently in first place in voter favor with 31 percent. The lead over the SPD is double-digit. Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig’s Social Democrats only have 21 percent. Your 39.6 percent result in the 2021 state election would have been almost halved.
BSW passes five percent hurdle, FDP is eliminated
According to the “OZ” survey, the CDU comes in third place, with 18 percent it is almost five points above its 2021 election result. This is followed by the Left and the Greens, each of which achieved 8 percent. The FDP would be out of the state parliament with 3 percent. The new Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) alliance, on the other hand, would get into parliament straight away with five percent. However, the BSW has not yet founded its own regional association.
Red-red state government without its own majority
According to the poll numbers, the red-red coalition no longer has its own majority. Together, the SPD and the Left only have 29 percent. Because the AfD is so strong, only a three-party alliance could achieve a majority beyond the AfD, as all parties rule out joining forces with the right-wing populists. That would then be a coalition trio made up of the SPD, CDU and the Greens or of the SPD, CDU and the Left. Two-party alliances, like those in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania since 1990, would not have a majority.
A clear majority is dissatisfied with the work of the state government
This consolidates a mood that a survey commissioned by NDR MV had already shown last September. The values for the current “OZ” survey have hardly changed. More than 25 years after moving into the State Chancellery, approval of the SPD-led state government is slipping according to the latest survey: A clear majority – at least 63 percent – is dissatisfied with the work of the SPD. In the Western Pomerania region, this proportion is higher than in Mecklenburg. Only 32 percent of voters are satisfied, the bottom line is a minus of 31 percent. A state government has never been rated so poorly by Forsa since the first survey in 2017. Seven years ago there was a 15 percent increase in satisfaction for the then red-black alliance.
Good marks for Agriculture Minister Backhaus (SPD)
The poor values are also reflected in the grades for the coalition’s top politicians. All ministers are doing poorly. Science Minister Bettina Martin (SPD) comes in last place. Only 20 percent are satisfied with their work, while 45 percent are not. However, one thing stands out: Agriculture and Environment Minister Till Backhaus (SPD) is the only member of the Schwesig cabinet with positive values. 61 percent are satisfied with it, only 31 percent are not. Long-time Minister Backhaus is still the poll king after more than 25 years in office.
Prime Minister Schwesig is slipping in favor with voters
Things are different with his boss. Forsa asked separately about the values for Schwesig: More than half – 51 percent – are dissatisfied with their work. Schwesig slips into the red for the first time at Forsa. The official bonus is melting away, but the development halfway through the election period is not surprising to many. Schwesig gets bad grades, especially in Western Pomerania and more often from men. One reason could be the change in Russia policy: Schwesig condemned the attack on Ukraine and assured the country of support. According to the Forsa survey, a majority of people in the country are in favor of completely stopping arms deliveries to Ukraine.
AfD leadership in MV is weakening in terms of approval ratings
Although the AfD is ahead in the “OZ” survey, its leaders do not achieve positive approval ratings. The state chairman Leif-Erik Holm is at 32 percent. The head of the state parliamentary group, Nikolaus Kramer, also ends up deep in the red. Only 14 percent are satisfied with their work, 37 percent are not. Kramer is still relatively unknown. Only 56 percent can relate to his name. Beyond Prime Minister Schwesig, Agriculture Minister Backhaus is also ahead in this category. The Social Democrat is known to 92 percent of voters.
Further information
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NDR 1 Radio MV | News from Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania | 01/19/2024 | 19:30 o’clock