Not more than two months. It is the short time that the new center-right government will have available, once it has sworn in the hands of the head of state and obtained the confidence of Parliament, to decide how to deal with the narrow retirement crossroads at the end of the year. Which presents itself with the risk of a new “staircase” evoked by the trade unions with the return from January 1, 2023 to the Fornero law in full version and with the simultaneous mine in public accounts triggered by the need to adjust pension payments to the rush of inflation. Without new interventions, in the transition between 2022 and the new year, three early exit channels will be closed in one fell swoop: Quota 102, Female Option and Social Ape. At the same time. An obligatory revaluation of the treatments is already foreseen, which will increase pension spending by 7.9% compared to this year.
The last race at the end of the year: Quota 102 stops with a low appeal
December 31 will mark the end of the annual Quota 102 experience, the possibility of early retirement with at least 64 years of age and 38 contributions, which was introduced by the latest budget law after the conclusion of the three-year trial of Quota 100 A measure, the one launched by the Draghi government, which does not seem to have met with great interest from the workers: at the end of the year there should be about 10 thousand outgoings, remaining far from the 16,800 retirements indicated by the executive in the technical report of the maneuver. Also on December 31, two other pension vehicles extended several times will end their journey: the woman option and the social Ape.
The alarm of the trade unions: the “staircase” arrives, immediately the table with the government
For CGIL, CISL and UIL, the simultaneous stop of these three exit channels will cause a sharp increase in the retirement threshold from 62 years of what was Quota 100 (later become 64 with Quota 102) to 67 years of the old age requirement. In other words, a new “staircase” would materialize, even if the reference age for retirement has always remained that set by the Fornero reform. Quota 102, in fact, is nothing more than a derogation, as is the Woman Option and Social Ape. But the unions remain convinced of their thesis: “We must build an agreement with the new government by next December because we know that the 102 quota expires and from January 1 there is a 5-year staircase that brings the old age to 67 years. », Argues the leader of the CISL, Luigi Sbarra. And the general secretaries of the CGIL and UIL are essentially on the same line. Hence the request to immediately open the way to Quota 41, dear to the League, or to guarantee for all out with 62 years.
The mine on the accounts
The two solutions proposed by the unions appear, at least on paper, hardly compatible with the current state of public accounts, put under pressure by the progressive deterioration of the economy. Also because due only to the indexation of pension checks, which will have to be triggered in January after the partial and “limited” advance envisaged by the Aid ter decree, pension expenditure is destined to rise by just under 24 billion next year, and with the ‘adoption of Quota 41 and the extensions of the Female Option and Social Ape would further increase to almost 30 billion. According to INPS estimates, 4 billion would be needed in the first year alone to guarantee the outgoings with 41 years of payments regardless of age. For the unions, and also for the League, the cost would not exceed 1.3-1.4 billion because the actual number of workers who would use this measure would be considerably lower than the potential one. On which, however, the State General Accounting Office would still be called to quantify any necessary financial coverage.
Between 2018 and 2024, the expenditure-to-GDP ratio ranged from 15.2 to 16.4%
In light of the difficult economic context and the delicate situation of public finances, accompanied by the absolute need to prop up families and businesses against high bills, highlighting that in the immediate future the way forward cannot be that of early retirement. president of Confindustria, Carlo Bonomi. The same technicians of the Ministry of Economy have repeatedly warned of the danger represented by the continuous rise in pension costs, which Brussels closely monitors. The pension expenditure-GDP ratio will rise from 15.7% in 2022 to 16.2% in 2023 and to 16.4% in 2024. The State General Accounting Office recently highlighted that, taking into account that in the two-year period 2023-2024 “the profile of the GDP deflator is significantly lower than that of the indexation rate and the high level of indexation itself (attributable to the surge in the inflation rate recorded starting from the end of 2021 and expected until 2023) “, ratio to domestic product “increases significantly, reaching 16.4% at the end of the two-year period (1.2 percentage points above the level of 2018)”. And this level would basically be maintained until 2030.