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After the June elections, the composition of the European Parliament will look completely different. Across Europe, anti-European, populist right-wing parties will do well, and moderate parties will lose popularity. This is predicted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), a pan-European think tank, based on an extensive voter survey.
In nine of the 27 EU countries, populist parties with an anti-European profile would emerge victorious in the elections. This also includes Belgium, where Vlaams Belang would narrowly become larger than N-VA. Both parties are allocated three seats in the European Parliament.
In France, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National would become the largest with 25 seats, in Italy Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia could climb to 27 seats (compared to six today), according to the research. Although the Alternative for Germany (AfD) must leave the leading position in Germany to the CDU/CSU, with 20 seats (eleven today) it would still become the second party in the country.
Major consequences for the climate agenda
According to the researchers, this will lead to strong growth in the European Parliament by the far-right ID faction and the conservative ECR group. The existing ‘super coalition’ of European People’s Party (EPP), Social Democrats (S&D) and Liberals (Renew), which put Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in the saddle five years ago, would still represent 54 percent of the seats, compared to 60 percent today.
This shift in power could have major consequences for European policy, it said. Because while the Green Deal could count on the support of a center-left coalition during the past legislature, the push to the right may put pressure on the climate agenda. But because pro-Russian parties may also enter the European Parliament, the election results could also have implications for support for Ukraine in its struggle with Russia. The rule of law is also in danger of becoming less important.
A striking forecast is that in Belgium Groen and PVDA/PTB would win two seats, while they now only have one each. However, the scores are very close to each other: the two seats for Groen are based on a predicted score of 12.0 percent of the votes cast, while Vooruit would be stuck with one seat with 11.8 percent. The unitary PVDA/PTB would win its first seat in Flanders and retain its French-speaking seat, meaning that party would also have two elected representatives.