Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is making waves in the 2024 presidential election, with recent polls showing him polling at 22% among registered voters. This figure is higher than any independent or third-party candidate in a generation, sparking interest and predictions about his potential influence on the outcome of the election.
The last independent presidential candidate to obtain more than 20% support in a poll one year before the election was Ross Perot in 1992, who ended up winning 19% of the popular vote. Joining a small group of non-majority party candidates who have seen similar polling numbers, Kennedy’s influence is becoming more apparent.
In swing states that played a crucial role in the 2020 election, Kennedy’s numbers are also turning heads. Polls show that Kennedy was polling at 25% in key states where former President Donald Trump won over Joe Biden, shifting the dynamics of the race. Trump’s leads in these states faded into ties or even points where Biden held a lead within the margin of error, making it clear that Kennedy is a significant factor in the upcoming election.
Alongside Kennedy, other independent and third-party candidates like Cornel West and Jill Stein are also gaining traction, further indicating the potential for these non-majority party candidates to affect the outcome of the election.
Overall, the rise of these non-mainstream party candidates reflects the widespread dissatisfaction with the mainstream parties, leading many to consider the possibility of the final winner coming away with significantly less than the majority.
Political analysts are urged to take into account the growing support for independent and third-party candidates as a significant factor in the 2024 election. With Kennedy polling over 20% in some polls, it is clear that a new dynamic is shaping the race, and it will be essential to consider all possible outcomes when predicting how the election may unfold.