It is a burning departure that of the seasonal flu. And not only in Italy. The first InfluNet report of the Higher Institute of Health highlights “a sharp increase in the number of cases referable to flu-like syndromes”, especially in children under 5. In the 43rd week of 2022, that from 24 to 30 October, “the estimated cases , compared to the entire Italian population, there are about 285 thousand, for a total of about 557 thousand since the start of surveillance ”, reads the bulletin drawn up with the collaboration of sentinel doctors.
Boom in the 0-4 age group
“The epidemic curve of flu-like syndromes shows values above the epidemic threshold and higher than those recorded in the last two seasons”, underlines the ISS, specifying that “not only influenza viruses, but also various respiratory viruses including rhinoviruses, the SARS-CoV-2 and, in part, the respiratory syncytial virus and the adenoviruses contribute to this increase ». In the week under review, the total incidence value was 4.83 cases per thousand assisted. In the 0-4 age group the figure rises to 19.61 cases per thousand, while in the 5-14 year olds it is 5.89 / thousand, from 15 to 64 years of age 3.94 / thousand and among the over 65s of 2.87 / thousand.
Five Regions out of surveillance
The thresholds of the current flu season – details the first report – set the basal level at 3.16 cases per thousand assisted, the low intensity at 9.37 / thousand, the average one at 14.37, the high one at 17.36 and the very high one at over 17.36. «Among the Regions that have activated the surveillance – indicates the ISS – Piedmont, Lombardy, Emilia Romagna, Tuscany, Umbria, Marche and Sicily record a level of incidence of flu-like syndromes above the basal threshold. Five Regions (Public Administration of Bolzano, Veneto, Campania, Calabria, Sardinia) have not yet activated InfluNet surveillance ».
Vaia: no worries but vaccine for the elderly and the frail
But the arrival of the flu “shouldn’t worry” in the opinion of the director general of the Spallanzani Institute in Rome Francesco Vaia. “It is important, as it has been in the past, that the elderly, the frail and those for whom it is recommended, get the vaccine.” The flu virus, Vaia underlines, «has been practically absent in the last two years because the masks and the various anti Covid measures have protected us. In recent weeks, also thanks to the hot climate, cases are still practically non-existent. It is probable that, with the arrival of the cold, we will have a more intense epidemic which in any case must not scare us ».
Ciccozzi: we will see more cases than in Covid
“Most likely, we will see more cases of flu than Covid” he predicts Massimo Ciccozzi, head of the Medical Statistics and Epidemiology Unit of the Campus Bio-Medico of Rome. What is happening does not surprise the experts. “Our antibody system is less ready. We have removed the masks that have protected us for two years, it is logical and inevitable that there will be many cases registered this year ». Everything, however, «is normal. Rightly so. However, it is important for the elderly and the frail to get vaccinated against the flu virus as well as against SARS-Cov-2 ».