Italian politics is incredibly similar to TV soaps Latin American: Full of unrequited loves, unusual relationships and multiple separations. The narrative lines reach their peak before an unexpected twist fixes everything: the moment of the deus ex machina. In ancient dramas, it occurred when a deity was lowered onto the stage from a machine to pick up an annoying character who could not otherwise be excluded from the plot.
The Italian left, led by the Democratic Party (Pd), is now hoping for the intervention of a deus ex machina after its electoral strategy crumbled with the sudden abandonment of a centrist ally, just four days after reaching an agreement to join forces against the rising right. But who will play the deus ex machina? The party is betting on Mario Draghi’s sacred aura.
The Democratic Party led by Enrico Letta is still shaken by the failure of its alliance with the centrist Carlo Calenda. If he manages to form a government after the September vote, Letta says he will continue Draghi’s policies and avenge the former central banker’s sudden departure from the scene. The secretary of the Democratic Party accuses the right of having sabotaged Draghi and betrayed the interests of Italy, causing an early vote. The problem? Draghi himself has no intention of playing the part of the savior in this drama. Those who still hope that the man who saved the euro will enter the excitement of the election campaign to influence the outcome is bound to be disappointed. Draghi will not.
Throughout his tenure, Draghi made it clear in no uncertain terms that he was there to perform a specific task, for which he had been nominated and not elected. The president of the republic had entrusted him with the mission of guiding the pandemic recovery plan in the right direction to obtain EU funding in exchange for reforms. It was a manager’s job, not a politician’s. And Draghi has shown no interest in the dirty games of politics necessary for those who want to cling to power in Rome.
Given the oddities of the past couple of months, who can blame him. Draghi has built his reputation by saving the euro in 2012. he doesn’t want his name to be dragged through the mud now. Nor that he is exploited in the election campaign. At the Democratic Party it will be impossible to make Dragons without Dragons. Bragging about continuing his program without the technocrat’s participation will hardly be credible. Draghi’s work is done and the politicians know it. Giorgia Meloni, leader of the Brothers of Italy and one of the favorites at the polls, will perhaps have vague positions on practically everything, but she is the strongest voice in asking for more freedom and less status. To be convincing, Letta’s party has to do more than repeat “Draghi, Draghi, Draghi”.
Letta had the right intuition to try to build a broad coalition, from the center to the left. But the so-called wide field of him asked everyone for too much flexibility, so much so that it ended up causing divisions. Calenda broke the deal by arguing that some elements of the alliance were populists like the right and that in the past they had also voted against the Draghi government.
Now a third pole has been created, in the center, but the more splits in the center-left, the better it will be for Meloni. The polls indicate a head to head between the Democratic Party and the Brothers of Italy. But Meloni has a coalition, albeit a quarrelsome one. The center-left does not have an alliance to beat the right. The accounts just don’t add up. All of this can be exciting, but Italian life after Draghi won’t be as fun. The rating agency Moody’s reminded investors – and Rome – of the costs of political turmoil, giving a negative view on the outlook for the country after Draghi’s resignation. The so-called Draghi put – its ability to placate the markets – is no longer there.
The few weeks remaining before the vote will be worth a lifetime in Italian politics. And anything can happen. But today there is a greater likelihood that a right-wing government will take over the keys to Palazzo Chigi this fall. Letta and her Democratic Party shouldn’t waste time chasing Draghi’s ghost. ◆ fdl