Looking ahead to 2023, excess demand will run out and have an impact on economic activity.
The product in 2022 expanded 7.5% in line with the projections that ANIF had (7.4%-7.9%). The main protagonist of growth was private consumption, which with 9.5% was the aggregate with the greatest contribution to growth. The preference for leisure services throughout the year by households kept this item at the forefront.
However, the main mole in the growth data, without any surprise, is the agricultural sector. With an accumulated contraction of 1.9%, it was the branch with the worst performance. Weather conditions reduced harvests and the strong devaluation of the peso had an impact on the cost of inputs. This also meant a major supply shock that led food inflation to settle at 27.81% at the end of the year.
Likewise, the current account deficit continues to worry. Although it was slightly reduced in 2022, it continues to have magnitudes that are not insignificant. Exports grow 9.0 pp less than imports, which aggravates our need for financing.
Looking ahead to 2023, as we have warned, excess demand will run out and have an impact on economic activity. This is confirmed by the demand for energy, which registered growth of 0% in November and December, and only 1.4% in January, which suggests a slower pace of industrial and commercial activities. It is worth remembering that the last quarter of the year grew only 2.9%, the lowest figure recorded since the first quarter of 2021.
All in all, ANIF expects a soft landing for the Colombian economy this year, in which consumption will lose relevance and exports will gain ground relative to the dynamics of imports.