The relief of Europe for the defeat of Marine Le Pen – Pierre Haski

The leaders of almost all European countries certainly breathed a sigh of relief at the announcement of Emmanuel Macron’s victory in France. The site of the German weekly Der Spiegel summed up this mood with a title consisting of only one exclamation: “Aah!” On the other hand, the stakes were simple: the failure of far-right candidate Marine Le Pen spared the European Union (EU) a potentially fatal crisis at a time of great tension with Russia after the invasion of Russia. Ukraine.

The program of the leader of the Rassemblement national was less radical and less hostile to Europe than in 2017, but her positions would have caused a paralysis of the institutions and a de facto “Frexit”, that is, an exit of France from the EU, weakening the united front of Europe in front of Vladimir Putin.

Several European commentators have presented the result of the second round of the French presidential elections as a “defeat for Putin”, because the Russian president, in full tug-of-war with the West, would have been the main beneficiary of a crisis within the Union European. In short, at the international level, the vote was experienced in a very different way compared to the internal debate in France. The return of war and its consequences are obviously the main factors influencing current European politics, but they are not the only ones.

A battle for control of Europe has been underway for years now, with the rise of populist forces rejecting the principle of “ever closer union” enshrined in the founding treaty of Rome. In 2016, the Brexit victory and Donald Trump’s victory in the United States had given the impression of a steamroller that would have crushed liberal democracies for the benefit of what Viktor Orbán, the Hungarian prime minister, calls “illiberalism”.

But on April 24 this current suffered two defeats: that of Le Pen in France and that of Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa, whose party lost the legislative elections. The populist Jansa is an ally of Orbán, who at this point finds himself alone. The Hungarian prime minister, despite winning a comfortable electoral victory in early April, is struggling with his alliance strategy that would reduce the European project to a series of simple partnerships between nations.

Since leaving the ranks of the conservative right, Orbán has been trying to build an alliance hostile to the European project. Le Pen is part of it, like Matteo Salvini, leader of the League in Italy. So far, however, the plan has not been successful.

The war in Ukraine has disrupted the political landscape, and the relationship with Russia has become a constant cause of division. In this context, marked by a Europe whose cohesion is endangered by the need to respond to Russian aggression, Emmanuel Macron will once again launch himself into the European arena.

The president will travel to Berlin for the ritual first visit after the victory, but in this case it will also be a significant appointment in light of German hesitations about Russia. Macron, who will manage the rotating presidency of the European Union for the next two months, has managed to bring Europe together on a common line. This remains his priority. The victory over Le Pen gives him the authority and the means to move forward.

Translation by Andrea Sparacino