petraeus is a four star american general who commanded in two wars. He led multinational forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and served as CIA director from 2011–2012. He was in Ukraine many times before the start of the Russian invasion in 2022.
General Petraeus believes that the war in Ukraine has now entered a kind of transition period after the Russians failed to achieve the goals of their winter offensive. The Russians managed to capture Bakhmut with difficulty, where several tens of thousands of Russian soldiers probably lost their lives and many more were wounded. Before that, Russia lost the battles of Kiev and Chernihiv, and the autumn campaign forced Russian forces to withdraw from part of the Kherson region. The Ukrainians have been preparing for a counter-offensive for months.
“This counter-offensive will attack the greatly depleted Russian forces. They suffered heavy losses. In many cases they fight continuously in the lines for a year or more. They don’t do unit swaps – which is exactly what should be done. They don’t withdraw their troops to restore them after losses, and they just throw in poorly trained and equipped individual replacements,” says the general.
According to him, Russian soldiers are not disciplined and well led. The command culture in the Russian army is very directive, controlled from above, so the cohesion and discipline of small units is lacking. This is the opposite of the Ukrainian approach.
Petraeus is convinced that the Ukrainians will achieve success using the combined effect of weapons.
“These are tanks supported by infantry that will prevent anti-tank guided missiles from hitting and keep the enemy at bay with artillery and mortars. There are also drones in the game, which provide the possibility of precise strikes with the use of precision artillery and rockets and missiles that have been provided to Ukraine,” the general judges. “It is very complex and requires very good command and control. And you have to conduct it, it’s a bit like a symphony. You have to get all the individual components to play their part.”
It will be difficult because the front line is two thousand kilometers long. Where the counter-offensive will start, Petraeus does not want to speculate. There is often talk about the disruption of the land communication that connects Russia with the annexed Crimea. According to the general, this can be achieved in different places and in different ways. He believes that we should not be asking whether Ukraine should embark on the military liberation of Crimea, but rather asking: “How can Crimea be liberated?”
According to Petraeus, Russia is still struggling economically, and although it is in recession due to sanctions and has fallen back a decade, it still has considerable capacity.
“In the long term, Russia has big problems. It lost its best and brightest people. During last fall’s mobilization, more men of military age left the country than were reported at the conscription stations,” the general describes Russia’s problems. But this country is still a great power and Putin probably believes that he could handle the Ukrainians, Europeans and Americans. “When Putin looks in the mirror, he still doesn’t see a leader who made a catastrophically bad decision for his country.”
He admits that it is frustrating for the Ukrainians that it takes a long time to think about what else to deliver: tanks, missiles, planes… Eventually, the deliveries will happen, but with a delay.
“In this regard, I actually share the frustration of the Ukrainian people. But I also think we have to recognize that $38 billion worth of weapons, munitions, and other material and aid is unimaginable. To be fair, Ukrainian officials always appreciate it very much in their statements, right before they say, ‘But by the way, we still need this.’ It was inevitable that we would provide M1 tanks to Ukraine. It was inevitable that we were going to provide HIMARS. It was inevitable that we would provide ranged weapons. It was inevitable that we would have to provide Western fighters. I think it’s inevitable now that we give them ATACMS (American ballistic missiles with a range of up to 300 kilometers, ed.),” says Petraeus.
But it is necessary to take one more step and let Ukraine know that one day it will be a member of NATO. Ukraine is already “in many ways fighting NATO’s war for NATO.” And for NATO, only one country is a threat, and that is the one with which Ukraine neighbors in the east.
We publish the article with the permission of the forum24.cz portal.
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