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On April 11, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China revealed to the media part of a letter it sent to a Chinese vice premier on April 8. The letter mainly talked about the serious impact of the current Chinese epidemic blockade on the production and logistics of European and American companies in China, and called on China to adjust its current epidemic prevention measures. Coincidentally, on the evening of April 13, two departments of the Chinese government and the Chinese leader himself issued new policies and put forward new requirements on the current epidemic prevention in China. Many of them have been adopted; at the same time, they also gave a positive response to the domestic logistics issues that the Chamber of Commerce is concerned about.
These two things prove that in terms of China’s blockade-style “clearing” to fight the epidemic, the Chinese government has begun a process of actively integrating with the world economy.
Blockade severely affects foreign companies in China and global supply chains
According to the letter from the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China to the Vice Premier of China, China’s current policy of “clearing” the epidemic has brought “various challenges” to foreign-invested enterprises in China in terms of production and logistics. The negative impact on China’s international image will also shake the confidence of foreign investment in the Chinese market.” Considering the current situation in Shanghai, China, the letter paints a picture in which the global supply chain is severely affected by China’s anti-epidemic measures.
According to the letter obtained by the author, the EU Chamber of Commerce mainly reflects the situation based on the status quo of the two major investment fields of Germany and the United States in China:
Citing a survey conducted by the German Chamber of Commerce in China the previous week, the European Union Chamber of Commerce said, “51% of German companies in the logistics and warehousing sector and 46% of German companies’ supply chains have been completely disrupted or severely negatively affected.”
“31% of companies’ manufacturing has been severely affected or even completely disrupted.”.
“40% of the companies surveyed had their upstream supply chain operations completely disrupted or severely impacted.”
“Transportation of raw materials and upstream products was completely disrupted or severely affected by 30% of the companies surveyed.”
“35% of companies downstream in the supply chain were severely affected or completely disrupted in the delivery of finished products; 33% of companies exporting products to Europe were similarly affected.”
According to the letter, surveys by the American Chamber of Commerce in China and the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai indicated that “US-funded companies in Shanghai and across the country are also facing similar difficulties.”
The European Union Chamber of Commerce believes that in the face of the new challenge of the Omicron mutant disease strain, the “old methods” of large-scale nucleic acid testing and collective isolation cannot effectively suppress the virus infection, and also “result in a rapid increase in economic and social costs”. To this end, the chamber of commerce recommends “learning from Singapore’s successful model and adjusting the current epidemic prevention and control plan” to achieve dual guarantees of health and stable socio-economic growth.
The chamber of commerce made three recommendations to China to adjust the current epidemic prevention and control plan:
Asymptomatic infected persons and mildly infected persons are quarantined at home;
Focus on promoting vaccination for people over 60 years old;
Focus on introducing more effective vaccines and boosters, such as mRNA vaccines.
In addition, as far as the author knows, apart from EU and US-invested enterprises in China, ASEAN and Japan also have similar requirements to the Chinese government as EU enterprises in China. However, in view of the current reality of the epidemic in China, especially considering the severity of the epidemic in Shanghai, which is currently officially recognized, the author cannot determine whether the timing of the submission of this letter from the European Chamber of Commerce is appropriate.
Furthermore, it is one thing to ask a country’s government to change its anti-epidemic program, but quite another to ask it to grant special policies to foreign-funded enterprises.
Judging from the official Chinese response to the letter from the EU Chamber of Commerce, there are two levels of performance:
The first is the level of the official position. It has not publicly stated that the Chinese official directly accepts the opinion of the European Union Chamber of Commerce. The first is the statement of the spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Zhao Lijian, the spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, responded that any prevention and control measures will have some costs. Compared with protecting people’s lives and health, these costs are worthwhile. Facts have proved that the dynamic is cleared. The general policy is in line with China’s actual situation, and the approach is correct.
Another is a comment published by Xinhua News Agency: Short-term “labor pains” cannot shake the fundamentals of China’s economy. The comment said: At the most difficult stage of Shanghai’s epidemic prevention and control, some foreign media and institutions said that if Shanghai continues to “blockade”, it will hit China’s economy hard. However, the anti-epidemic practice for more than two years tells us that the current resolute “prevention” of the epidemic is precisely for the sake of more sustainable economic stability. The short-term “pain” that Shanghai is going through will not and will not shake the fundamentals of China’s economy.
But at the same time, the statements of relevant Chinese government departments around April 13, as well as the latest speeches of Chinese leaders, show that things are moving in the direction of opening up.
EU Chamber of Commerce recommendations are being accepted
Judging from the information publicly disclosed by the Chinese government on April 13, there have been some new changes and adjustments in China’s anti-epidemic policies, some of which are consistent with the recommendations made by the European Chamber of Commerce; but some people say that this is Singapore’s success model.
On the evening of April 13, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention released the prevention and control requirements for people who are quarantined at home through its official account.
According to the guidelines of the “New Coronavirus Pneumonia Prevention and Control Plan (Eighth Edition)” issued by the Comprehensive Team of the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council in May 2021, the management objects of home medical observation are: close contacts and special groups in close contact, For example, only children aged 14 and under or pregnant and lying-in women are close contacts or close contacts of family members, suffer from underlying diseases or are semi-self-care and incompetent special groups; immigrants who implement “7+7”; of patients and asymptomatic infected persons after release from isolation; other persons who cannot undergo centralized isolation medical observation after evaluation by professionals. Obviously, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention indicates that for mild and asymptomatic infected people and special groups, the days of home isolation instead of going to the hospital or cabin isolation are not far away.
Also on the evening of April 13, the Ministry of Transport issued the “Notice on the Progress of Self-inspection and Self-correction Work on the Closure, Shutdown, Shutdown and Self-correction of National Expressway Toll Stations and Service Areas”.
According to the report: Affected by the epidemic, as of 24:00 on April 12, 2022, a total of 517 toll stations have been closed on expressways in various provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), accounting for 4.79% of the total number of toll stations, a decrease of 161 from April 10. up 23.75%.
In addition, a total of 283 service areas were closed, accounting for 4.28% of the total number of service areas, a decrease of 81 compared with April 10, a decrease of 22.25%. Among the 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) except Tibet (where there are no expressway toll stations and service areas), Tianjin, Fujian, Hainan, Chongqing, Yunnan, Gansu and Ningxia have no closed expressway toll stations and service areas. . This bodes well for greater closures and unblocking of highways and service areas soon, as this directly affects logistics and economic development.
Finally, also on the evening of April 13, CCTV’s “News Network” broadcasted the report of the Chinese leader’s visit to Hainan from April 10 to April 13.
Chinese leaders pointed out: “In view of the new characteristics of virus mutation, improve scientific and precise prevention and control capabilities, improve various emergency plans, strictly implement normalized prevention and control measures, and minimize the impact of the epidemic on economic and social development.” The two core points are “control” and “minimize the impact of the epidemic on economic and social development”. All this indicates that, apart from the special situation in Shanghai, China’s epidemic prevention and anti-epidemic work will enter a new historical stage, and its direction should be gradually opened up; even the current situation in Shanghai may soon be adjusted.
As far as China’s anti-epidemic strategy is concerned in the next step, it can be predicted that it will focus on the economic field and serve the supply chain.
At the same time, however, and on the same day, the chairman of the WHO’s Emergency Committee, Hu Xin, said: “We agreed that now is not the time.” The committee concluded that the Covid-19 pandemic still constitutes a public health emergency of international concern. Condition. Therefore, the adjustment of China’s current anti-epidemic strategy must be gradual and well-prepared. For example, the central government may require local governments to build shelters in case of unexpected events.
(Note: The author is the secretary-general of the International Public Opinion Research Center of the Charhar Institute and a researcher of the Peninsula Peace Research Center. This article only represents the author’s personal views. The editor-in-charge email [email protected])