Rarely in the 74-year history of the military alliance have the heads of government and states of the NATO countries been so close to the enemy at their regular summit meetings. Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, is only 200 kilometers from the border of the Russian aggressor in the Kaliningrad exclave. It is 360 kilometers to the border of Ukraine attacked by Russia. Belarus, allied with Russia, where the arrival of Russian Wagner mercenaries is expected, is only 35 kilometers from Vilnius. In 2006, NATO met in neighboring Latvia, in Riga, but at that time Russia was still considered a partner, not a threat.
The Lithuanian army and NATO allies deploy around 4,000 soldiers to protect the largest meeting of heads of state and government in Lithuania’s history. If you include the police and secret services, around 12,000 people will ensure security on the two summit days on Tuesday and Wednesday. According to Lithuanian diplomats, one must reckon with “provocations” by the Russians. The German Bundeswehr is also involved. The Air Force has deployed Patriot systems temporarily around Vilnius to ward off potential missile attacks. The Patriots have been operational since Thursday, the Air Force tweeted. Unspecified special forces of the Bundeswehr are also deployed.
What does host Lithuania want to achieve?
The Vilnius Exhibition Center was specially renovated and expanded for the military alliance summit. In total, Lithuania is spending 38 million euros on the top meeting. Money well spent, according to Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda. A well-organized summit shows that Lithuania is “mature” enough to make this historic meeting possible, he said a few days ago when he visited the NATO-style exhibition halls. Now it’s no longer about the infrastructure, but about the content and decisions. Host Nauseda, a high-profile supporter of Ukraine and its aspirations to join NATO, wants the alliance to demonstrate unity above all else.
Gitanas Nauseda: Lithuania wants to make a historic NATO summit possibleImage: Nina Haase/DW
The Lithuanian president says the current weakness of Russian ruler Vladimir Putin should be exploited after the Wagner mercenaries’ aborted coup attempt: “Some of my colleagues say that a strong Putin is less dangerous than a weak Putin. I don’t agree. We We must move forward resolutely because we are at a crossroads in history. If we are not resolute and united now, tomorrow will be too late.”
What does Ukraine expect from NATO?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy formulated his goal during a tour of several NATO countries before the summit and on many previous occasions: “Ukraine is ready for NATO membership. We are waiting for when NATO is ready for Ukraine.”
Preparations for the summit in Kiev at the end of June: Lithuanian President Nauseda (r) with his Ukrainian colleague Selenskyj (l)Image: Daria Nynko/DW
He understood that Ukraine should not be included during the ongoing war, but at least security guarantees from the West are now needed. “Security guarantees are important not only for Ukraine but also for our neighbors because of Russian aggression in Ukraine and possible aggression against other parts of Europe.” Ukraine’s expectations are high, but Chancellor Olaf Scholz – like other heads of government long before the meeting in Vilnius – made the position of the major NATO countries clear: “There can be no accession to our defense alliance during the war. One of the prerequisites for membership is that there are no unresolved border conflicts.” US President Joe Biden made it clear in a CNN interview before the summit that Ukraine would have to wait longer. Accession can only be considered after the end of the Russian war of aggression. Now Ukraine must first be helped to win the war. After the war, security guarantees such as those currently being received by Israel are possible, the American President indicated.
Is a quick NATO entry better?
It is unclear how security guarantees from the major NATO countries USA, Great Britain, France and Germany could look like for Ukraine immediately after the hoped-for end of the war and should at least be discussed in Vilnius. The security policy expert at the Science and Politics Foundation in Berlin, Claudia Major, finds the Chancellor’s position too hesitant. She recommends that parts of Ukraine, which are certainly controlled by the government in Kiev, be included in NATO right now. In this way, Ukraine will become a real ally, which will then also have to be defended.
“It’s not a quick and easy process. Joining NATO involves a lot of risks. But if we now say: Joining after the war, that means de facto that Russia has an incentive to continue this war indefinitely, and de facto has a veto in the free choice of alliance,” said Claudia Major on ARD television.
Jens Stoltenberg: Summit participants should announce more military support for UkraineImage: François Walschaerts/AFP
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, whose term of office was recently extended for another year, tirelessly repeats the formula that NATO countries will support Ukraine with arms, ammunition and training for as long as it is necessary to repel the aggressor Russia. “At the summit, I expect new announcements of military support for Ukraine. We will also vote on a multi-year program to prepare for membership in NATO. We must ensure that Ukraine endures as a sovereign, independent state in Europe,” Stoltenberg said ahead of the summit at NATO headquarters in Brussels.
What is the argument?
However, until just before the summit, the 31 delegations from the member countries had not yet reached agreement on details of Ukraine policy and also on new defense plans to deter and repel possible Russian attacks on NATO territory. NATO’s supreme commander in Europe presented an almost 2,000-page defense plan in the event of a Russian invasion. It is the first such plan since the end of the Cold War in the 1980s.
Turkey in particular is still stonewalling the final text, not out of fundamental concerns, but to push through a few points of its own, according to diplomatic circles. And even the more Russia-friendly Hungary is not very committed to supporting Ukraine. France has recently advocated Ukraine’s rapid membership of NATO. Germany and other Western countries are more hesitant, while the Baltic states are calling for more weapons, more ammunition, actually more of everything for Ukraine.
“It’s nice to go to the summit and say: oh, we’re all pulling together,” former senior NATO strategist Stefanie Babst said in an interview with Lithuanian radio (LRT). “I’m sorry, but that’s bullshit. Everyone can see that there are different approaches. And if we can see that, President Putin can too. And the Chinese and Iranians can too.”
Hope for help against the Turkish veto: Sweden’s Prime Minister Kristersson (l) with US President Biden in Washington Photo: Evan Vucci/AP/dpa/picture alliance/dpa
Why does Sweden have to wait?
The decisive factor will be how NATO’s leading power, the USA, positions itself on the contentious issues. US President Joe Biden has spoken out against immediate NATO membership for Ukraine, but wants to pledge more military aid. Biden also wants to influence Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He should finally give up his opposition to Sweden’s entry into NATO, which has been promised for a year. Before the actual summit, Erdogan will meet Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson in Vilnius on Monday, who in turn asked for support at the White House in Washington last week. Turkey still accuses Sweden of not doing enough against suspected Kurdish terrorists. The Hungarian parliament has not yet approved Sweden’s accession either. A solution to the problem is within reach, assured NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
Untiring commitment among NATO politicians: Olha Stefanishyna, Deputy Prime Minister of UkraineImage: Attila Huseynov/SOPA/ZUMA/picture alliance
What’s next?
Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine Olha Stefanishyna has been incessantly touring Europe over the past few months, campaigning for her war-torn homeland to join the EU and NATO. In an interview with DW, in view of the friction within the alliance, she assessed the prospects of a clear commitment at the Vilnius summit as follows: “NATO is a very special organization. You know, getting an answer from NATO is different of how other political friends operate around the world.” I guess that means it stays vague.
Rukla – Currently no enemy vision
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