The author is an external collaborator of Deník N, political scientist, political commentator and publicist. It focuses on the politics, history and culture of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe.
The goal of the Ukrainian offensive from the summer of 2023 was to achieve a breakthrough in the southern direction, to drive a wedge between Crimea and its surroundings and Russian troops operating in the southeastern parts of Ukraine. When the declared goal could not be achieved, according to many, it was time to negotiate peace – understandably, very disadvantageous for Ukraine.
Moreover, the military liberation of Crimea is considered by most military experts to be extremely difficult, and thus extremely improbable, even impossible. This often appears as a basic building block of the argument that the war does not have a favorable military solution for Ukraine and that peace talks are therefore on the agenda.
However, the reality is more complex, and the outcome of a military conflict may not be decided only by the situation on the fronts and shifts in battle lines. A good example is provided by Wilhelmine Germany during the First World War, moreover in a double sense.
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