The center alliance between Action and Italia Viva may not change much the electoral results in the single-member constituencies in the aftermath of the vote, according to polls. And it could shift the balance even more to the advantage of the center-right. This is what emerges from the survey carried out by YouTrend, in collaboration with Cattaneo Zanetto & Co., the first that takes into account the newborn “Third pole”.
The waste margins
According to the study, there are 14 colleges in the Chamber where today the advantage of the center-right over the center-left is lower than the percentage to which the Third Pole is credited: they are concentrated above all in large cities (Rome, Milan, Turin and Genoa) and in Tuscany. In these colleges, the split between the center-left and the Calenda-Renzi ticket would bring water to the mill of Meloni, Salvini and Berlusconi, thus subtracting votes from the center-left and creating an even greater gap between the two coalitions. In the Senate, where the single-member constituencies are larger, there are only 5 constituencies where the Third Pole would be decisive in favor of the center-right: in Rome, Tuscany and Romagna. The estimates by YouTrend / Cattaneo Zanetto & Co. show that the center-right would still seem favored for winning the majority of the colleges. The current situation sees 114 colleges with a clear trend in favor of the center-right in the House, out of the 147 total, and 57 out of 74 in the Senate.
Hypothesis of 10% stake
In a further simulation, the institutes wondered what could happen in the event that the third pole reaches 10% of the total preferences, eroding a 4% of consensus all from the center-right field (currently the polls place the Action – Iv ticket between 4 and 6%). A scenario, also this, that would not upset the results. In this case, up to 14 seats in the House and 8 in the Senate could be contestable again. In Montecitorio, the center-left would have 3 more almost certain parliamentarians (going from the current 6 to the potential 9) and could play it with greater chances in another 11, while at Palazzo Madama it would win only one senator compared to the previous estimates (from 2 to 3) and would open the challenge for another 6 seats. An additional senatorial college could go, with this scenario, to the Sudtiroler Volkspartei. Above all, several colleges in the South would return in the balance, as well as in the hinterlands of large cities.