Since the English Premier League was founded ahead of its inaugural 1992/93 season, only two clubs have won the title from outside the established ‘big six’.
Manchester City and United, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea have enjoyed a near-monopoly on the trophy ever since, with only Blackburn Rovers (1994/95) and Leicester City (2015/16) breaking the shackles.
But could the 2023/23 campaign see another ‘little club’ smashing the glass ceiling? Aston Villa are battling away near the summit of the table, with many pundits suggesting they are there to stay too…
David vs Goliath
For those betting on football, the temptation in the Premier League markets is to favor the traditional favorites: Man City (-100), Liverpool (+300) and Arsenal (+350) chief among them.
But the status quo has been shaken up by Villa, who are starting to appear more frequently in football betting tips at an attractive price of +1600.
After 16 rounds of matches, the Villains found themselves on 35 points – two more than City and just two behind table-toppers Liverpool. But what was perhaps more eye-catching was that they beat both Arsenal and Pep Guardiola’s side within the space of a few days in December; proof positive that they are ones to watch this term.
At that time, only Man City had scored more goals than Villa in the EPL and only had Arsenal and Liverpool conceded fewer – confirming the strength of Unai Emery’s men at both ends of the pitch.
All of the ingredients are in place for a Villa title charge – even if the history books tell us how unlikely it is. Ollie Watkins is now a proven scorer at the top level, averaging a goal every other game in 2023/24, while there’s a strong profile of experienced players at the club: Douglas Luiz, John McGinn and Matty Cash amongst them.
And watch what happens when Villa score a goal: you’ll notice the jubilation in the celebrations, and how many players rush over to congratulate the scorer. This is a club that is together and united – never underestimate how far that can take a sports team towards success.
Stat Attack
The only issue dogging Aston Villa is that they tend to be solid in every department – but without necessarily hitting the elite levels of their rivals.
As we’ve learned, they’re not quite the best when it comes to putting the ball in the back of the net, and that’s evidenced by their chance creation stats too. They rank seventh in the EPL for xG fashioned, the same for shots on target per game, and sixth for Big Chances Created – all of which suggests they have some work to do to hit the levels required to challenge for silverware.
Defensively, they rank only eighth best for xG yielded and ninth for clean sheets kept, while as many as seven goalkeepers have been less busy than Emi Martinez when it comes to shots saved.
The underlying data therefore suggests that Aston Villa will fall away between now and the end of the season. But their momentum, and knack for beating the ‘big clubs’, should not be overlooked all the same…