The away game at Mainz 05 is groundbreaking for 1. FC Union: with a win, the Iron Men would be nine points clear of a direct relegation zone.
Facts about the game
For Mainz and Union Berlin it is a very important encounter in the fight to stay in the league. Mainz is in relegation place 17 with eleven points. Union is 15th in the table. currently 17 points. Both Bundesliga clubs have already swapped coaches this season. At Union, Nenad Bjelica inherited the former successful coach Urs Fischer. In Mainz, Bo Svensson made way and Jan Siewert took over. Mainz is the worst home team in the league. Only one win and five points are recorded. Union arrives as the worst away team. The Köpenickers only got four points away from home. In the last six away games in the Bundesliga, Union remained without a goal at 0:12. The last away goalscorer was the Italian Leonardo Bonucci, who has since moved to Fenerbahce Istanbul, on October 7th in the 2-4 defeat in Dortmund. There have been four Bundesliga duels between the two clubs in Mainz so far. Union won in 2020/21 (2:1) and 2019/20 (3:2). In 2022/23 there was a draw (0-0). The Iron Men only suffered a defeat in 2020/21 (0:1).
This is how things are going in terms of sport for Mainz
Actually, two numbers are enough to get to the heart of Mainz’s problems: They only managed one win in 19 games this season, and 14 goals scored are, together with 1. FC Cologne, the worst value in the league.
No wonder that the game against 1. FC Union, which is also threatened with relegation, is particularly important. “Union is the second do-or-die game after Werder,” says Jan Budde, who dedicates himself to the 05ers in his podcast “Hinterhofsänger” and closely follows every game of the team.
Mainz lost the first of these crucial games last weekend against Bremen 0-1 – a result that is typical for them. Jan Siewert, who took over at Mainz after Bo Svensson left, has so far managed to stabilize the team defensively, according to expert Budde. But: “We don’t have a game idea.” The team lacks ideas on how to get into the opponent’s half. Mainz still often shoot on goal, says Budde, “but the positions are too bad.”
In Budde’s opinion, the only thing that can help is to press more offensively and position the entire team higher in order to shorten the path forward. So far, Mainz’s only plan is to wait for their opponents to make mistakes. However, this doesn’t work, especially when there is a backlog. “If I’m behind, I really have to go at the opponent’s throat,” demands Budde. This would require a bolder style of play.
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That moves the fans
In the relegation battle, Mainz fans’ attention is currently primarily focused on the sporting situation. It is precisely the question of coaching that concerns the club: The original interim solution was Siewert, who received a contract until 2026 shortly before Christmas. Even when he was appointed, many experts and fans did not understand why Siewert inherited Svensson, says Budde.
Benjamin Hoffmann, “the best youth coach in Germany,” as Jan Budde puts it, works in the Mainz youth team. Hoffmann became German champion and cup winner with the Mainz u19 team. He has been coaching the 05er second team since January.
Budde concludes: “So he would have been ready to leave the u19s.” None of this makes the task any easier for head coach Siewert. If he wants to remain coach, he has to win both against Union and then against Stuttgart.
Regardless of the sporting outcome of the season, the board will still have discussions after the season, says Budde. Because the club management said “yes” in the vote on the DFL investor deal, contrary to the supervisory board’s vote, a conflict with the active fan scene is simmering.
The ultras already brought a fruit basket to the office. The message: Mainz fans feel like they have been turned into fruit by their club.
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Union has to pay attention to this player
Budde is hoping that at least the team could soon improve the mood, especially as a winter newcomer. Nadiem Amiri played for Mainz for the first time against Bremen and immediately impressed. For example, the former national player shot the set pieces against Werder and was involved in various offensive actions.
“It’s unbelievable what quality he brings,” enthuses Budde. Amiri is a leader, as he showed, for example, when he gave the ball boys instructions on how to speed up the game for Mainz. Amiri was substituted after 85 minutes against Bremen. Against Union it could be enough for a whole game.
The voices of the trainers
Marie-Louise Eta (representing Nenad Bjelica/Union Berlin): “We expect a very duel-focused game. Mainz certainly didn’t have the same successes recently, but also games that didn’t match the result. For us it will be about the fight assume, throw everything in, defend your own goal and then achieve a good balance when playing with the ball.
Jan Siewert (Mainz 05): “We can bring our game forward even more straightly. We have to put Union under direct pressure.”
This is how Union could play
Frederik Rönnow was able to train again after recovering from illness and will keep goal in Mainz. Things get interesting on the right wing, where Josip Juranovic (injured) and Christopher Trimmel (suspended) are both missing options. Either Jerome Roussillon or Robin Gosens could change sides.
Mikkel Kaufmann could be preferred to Benedict Hollerbach in the attack. In the defeat in Leipzig, Union lacked a big attacker at the top as a starting point.
Union’s possible starting eleven: Rönnow – Roussillon, Doekhi, Vogt, Leite, Gosens – Kral – Haberer, Schäfer – Vertessen, Kaufmann
Prognosis
The opponent expert’s tip: When asked how he would predict the game, Budde answers “oh God” and immediately adds the reason. His tip: “I expect a dirty 1:1”.
The author’s tip: It’s not for nothing that Union and Mainz are among the teams with the fewest goals scored. Union will primarily benefit from this on Wednesday. The team showed against Darmstadt, Cologne and Gladbach that they can do it against their neighbors in the table: 1-0 for Union.
Broadcast: rbb24 Inforadio, February 6, 2024, 4:15 p.m