In the meandering and still uncertain path towards a possible ceasefire and while cluster bombs and phosphorus bullets rain down on the Russian side, a hypothesis of Italy appears in the team of possible guarantors. Ukraine asks for it, but Moscow, without excluding it, sends Mario Draghi to say that “conditions are not yet ripe”. We will see. The sky above Kiev and Mariupol is still dark with battle and massacres. General Vincenzo Camporini, former Defense Chief of Staff and expert analyst, is quite skeptical.
General, are Ukraine and Russia really getting closer in negotiations?
“I don’t see any concrete signs. Negotiation means that both sides concede something. I would speak of meetings. I see some openings on the Ukrainian side, especially on the Donbass, while Moscow is setting conditions it does not want to discuss”.
Just smoke in the eyes?
“The rapprochement is the illusion of someone who is convinced that there is a division of intentions: the United States pushing to create tension towards Russia and the Europe that instead wants to negotiate. It is an entirely Italian idea”.
What does it actually mean for Italy to act as guarantor?
“It is a very delicate role because, once the rules have been established, if there is a violation by one of the parties, it is necessary to intervene”.
Come?
“We need to be aware that the most obvious interpretation is that of the introduction of article 5 of the NATO treaty which provides for the obligation on the part of the signatories to military intervention if violations occur by those who attack”.
Thorny situation.
“Russia, given the precedents, there is little to trust”.
What weight could Italy have in the role of guarantor?
“Certainly important if it is recognized as having an institutional role within an international team. I repeat, we must then take into account the risk of being involved”.
Does it also mean being present on the ground after the ceasefire?
“Not necessarily. Although Ukraine would probably like it. In any case, a potential force must be set up to act if someone violates the agreements.”
Is Italy ready for this step?
“This is the question that I ask myself too. One thing is a position, one thing is the facts. It is certainly prestigious to be part of a pool of countries considered capable and reliable. But perhaps we must also explain to public opinion that we it is a heavy commitment that also involves risks “.
Is an interposition force like Unifil in Lebanon conceivable?
“They are different concepts. The UN forces can only be deployed with the agreement of the two contenders and the yes of the five members of the Security Council which also includes Russia. Everyone has the right of veto, so it is easy to pull the conclusions “.
But what would a Unifil-like force in theory have?
“It depends on the rules of engagement, but usually the United Nations is very cautious. In Lebanon, for example, Unifil, among other things, supervises the disarmament of local militias, a task that the Lebanese army must carry out”.
Who are the most suitable departments for tasks of this kind?
“Each army forms some departments for international missions. Italy has highly trained and well-trained men from different departments who rotate in missions abroad”.
How are the participating countries chosen?
“The UN tends to indicate countries that have no disputes with the forces in the field. And Italy has embraced Zelenski’s cause”.
Is a neutral Ukraine possible?
“It depends on what neutrality you are talking about. I often hear mention of Austria and Finland. They have very different characteristics”.
Explain.
“The first has limited forces, about 22 thousand soldiers, half of which are conscripts with a stay in service of 6 months. The second has more or less the same soldiers in service but with a reserve of around 900 thousand well-trained men. . It has up-to-date armaments and has just acquired 64 F35 aircraft, the fifth generation multi-role fighter. “
What could Ukraine’s choice be?
“Certainly it would opt for a Finnish option, which however also provides for a certain adjustment in military equipment with the meaning of a further approach to the West. I do not think Moscow can accept such an arrangement. But it is too early to say”.