Six Nations 2023: Where does Welsh rugby go from here?

Where does Welsh rugby go from here? It has been a regular question in recent times and is pertinent again after another disastrous week.

Such drastic action was avoided but, given the preparation, Warren Gatland’s men were perhaps predictably overpowered and outclassed in a 20-10 defeat against Steve Borthwick’s side.

As Wales prop up the Six Nations table, we wonder how it has got to this point.

More importantly, what is the way out of this latest and perhaps most damaging Welsh rugby crisis?

History boys

Facts and figures sometimes do not tell the story. In this situation, though, they do.

Let’s lay out some damning Welsh rugby statistics.

The England loss was a 12th in 15 matches, a run stretching back to Wayne Pivac’s era.

It was the third successive Six Nations defeat, making this Wales’ worst start in the tournament since 2007.

Wales have not been whitewashed since Steve Hansen’s class of 2003 suffered that fate, but a repeat is now a realistic prospect.

Wales travel to play Italy in Rome for the potential Wooden Spoon decider on 11 March before facing France in Paris seven days later.

England emulated Ireland in achieving their biggest winning margin against Wales since 2003, while Scotland compiled a record 35-7 win in the Murrayfield match.

This is also the first year that Wales have not won a home Six Nations match during a tournament since 2003.

Wales have now dropped to 10th in the world rankings after previously occupying this position in 2007 and 2013.

Next month they could fall out of the top 10 for the first time. Grim reading across the board.

Identity crisis

In Gatland’s first stint in charge, between 2007 and 2019, you could usually recognise what his side looked like and represented.

There was not always the success people selectively remember, but you knew the roughly personnel he was picking reinvented several sides.

Judging by his three selections since returning, Gatland is searching for his strongest side, or perhaps more importantly, the team he wants to field in the World Cup opening game against Fiji in September.

What we have witnessed is a mix and match, as Gatland balances over-30s like Ken Owens, Alun Wyn Jones, Dan Biggar, Justin Tipuric, Taulupe Faletau, George North, Liam Williams and Leigh Halfpenny with early 20-somethings Christ Tshiunza, Dafydd Jenkins, Tommy Reffell, Jac Morgan, Joe Hawkins and Mason Grady. There is nothing much in the in-between age bracket.

Five alterations from Ireland to Scotland and nine more changes for the England encounter demonstrate Gatland is still looking for his first-choice line-up.

His post-match comments after England suggest he will look for cohesion and continuity rather than experimentation against Italy.

The identity crisis is not limited to playing personnel, with the coaching appointments also under scrutiny.

The familiar figures of Rob Howley, whose reappointment was blocked by the Welsh Rugby Union (WRU) board, and Shaun Edwards are no longer alongside Gatland.

He has brought in a new defence coach in Mike Forshaw, a man he had never met before, with Wales conceding 12 tries in three games.

Under new attack coach Alex King, Wales have managed only three tries in three games, including an interception effort and a score from a rolling maul.

Style of play and tactics are also under scrutiny. The old ‘Warrenball’ term, used to describe Wales’ style of play in Gatland’s first reign, used to irk the New Zealander, but it was based on big ball-carrying backs like Jamie Roberts getting the side across the gainline, with the game-plan developing from there.

Wales’ kicking tactics against England, where they regularly gave full-back Freddie Steward possession, have come under scrutiny.

The tactics appeared wrong and the inability to change them on the field concerning.

Gatland return

It was always going to be a gamble for Gatland when he decided to return for a second Wales spell by replacing fellow countryman Pivac in December 2022.

Gatland’s status was assured following his initial 12-year stint in Wales, which included three Grand Slams, four Six Nations titles and two World Cup semi-final appearances.

Welsh rugby was in disarray when Gatland returned at the end of last year and it has not improved since.

Now he has lost three successive Six Nations matches for the first time as Wales coach and is staring down the barrel of a tournament whitewash.

Borthwick followed Ireland chief Andy Farrell and Scotland head coach Gregor Townsend in getting the better of their former British and Irish Lions boss.

So for all his trophies and Lions success, Gatland has problems.

Reviving this struggling Wales team ahead of the World Cup later this year would perhaps mark his greatest achievement.

Gatland has repeatedly stated he believes he can transform the side with the couple of months he has with them before the global tournament. There will certainly be a lot of work to do.

Off-field travails

The England defeat was perhaps inevitable given the troubled build-up, with concessions made on both sides to ensure the match went ahead.

Major long-term issues remain surrounding the professional game in Wales and the future of its regional players.

A freeze has been put on offering player contracts, with uncertainty around players’ long-term futures as more than 70 find themselves without deals beyond this season.

Negotiations have been ongoing with Cardiff, Dragons, Ospreys and Scarlets over a new six-year funding framework, with the regions given official documentation last week.

Wales’ players were told they will be offered new deals next week, with acting WRU chief executive Nigel Walker saying he will hold the four regions’ “feet to the fire” if that does not happen.

Ken Owens is one of the few figures to emerge with credit from Welsh rugby’s latest sorry saga, the captain having proved pivotal in the players’ negotiations.

Owens spoke of everybody working together to ensure Welsh rugby did not become a laughing stock again.

Whether Walker’s comments, made on Saturday in front of millions of people on national television, will inflame the fractious relationship between the WRU and regions remains to be seen.

Walker has proved a beacon of contrition since stepping into his interim role following the resignation of Steve Phillips.

He has apologised to players and previous WRU employees who have accused the governing body of having a toxic and sexist culture, claims being investigated by an independent taskforce.

Walker will require that diplomatic approach once more with the small matter of an extraordinary general meeting to come on 26 March, at which major governance change will be on the agenda.

Wales’ last Six Nations whitewash was followed by the regional rugby revolution. Whether similar seismic change happens in the domestic game any time soon remains to be seen.

Azzurri await

Before all that, Wales desperately need to claim a win from somewhere, yet form suggests Italy will be the favourites at the Stadio Olimpico.

They pushed Ireland and France close in Rome but would always have targeted Wales’ visit as they search for a first home Six Nations win since 2013.

The memories will be fresh for both sides of last year’s meeting in Cardiff, when Italy broke their seven-year, 36-match Six Nations losing sequence with a shock late win.

Wales suffered defeats in the Italian capital in 2003 and 2007 and there are similarities between those campaigns and this one.

Gatland will be determined to ensure the list of Welsh defeats in Rome is not extended next month.

Should he fail in that quest, then where, you wonder, would Welsh rugby go from there?