Madrid
16/07/2023
Act. a las 07:35
CEST
The socialists see the blockade as the only way out on 23J and assume that there will be no votes for a government of the left, which would also require the support of Junts
The PSOE continues immersed in a emotional swing, between excitement and discouragement, which also turns this campaign into a fight against themselves. The depression of crash of May 28 an attempt was made to deal with the shot of the electoral call. For a few days it worked. Later, the quick pact between the PP and Vox in the Valencian Community, the mess in Extremadura, the radical nature of the profiles that the ultra-right has imposed on the institutions or that the popular accepted the concept of intra-family violence, contributed to maintaining that momentum.
The polls pointed to a recovery of the socialist vote until the Pedro Sánchez stumble in the debate with Alberto Núñez Feijóo has caused the spread of uneasiness and that the PSOE look like sit down. Party sources admit that has affected the “internal mood” but they also consider that such a harsh face-to-face “changes few votes.”
These weeks have been for the Socialists a grounding with electoral reality. The initial feeling that the 28M coup it had not been so strong, in number of votes, it has vanished. In the equator of 23J the socialists have assumed that it is practically impossible to reissue the coalition government and that the battle is to achieve that there is no sum of PP and Vox. That between the two they do not reach an absolute majority (176 seats) and that there are not enough votes from other groups in the Chamber to complete it.
According to different sources consulted, both in Ferraz and in Moncloa have accepted that the battle is posed in those terms. And they do believe that they still have it within reach. “We are above what the polls say”secures a territorial baron. “It’s going to be better than it seems”, also defends another. In the federations it is argued that these are more bipartisan elections and that favors them.
Sources of the socialist leadership suggest that if “we move 6 or 7 block seats, Feijóo and Abascal are not going to govern”, referring to some deputies in contention who finally get the PSOE or Sumar due to the vicissitudes of the distribution, constituency by constituency”. This, together with the fact that, as this newspaper published, they trust that Feijóo’s agreements with the extreme right will lead part of the more moderate socialist vote, which now thought to support the popular candidate, to reconsider that decision.
There are no numbers for an investiture of Sánchez
In the PSOE no one is talking about a victory for the left that would allow them to remain in the Government. They don’t go around with the calculator, counting votes for a possible inauguration, above all because The support of Junts does not seem feasible. That is why the realistic objective is that Feijóo does not achieve it either. If he does not automatically add up with Vox, “he cannot talk to anyone”, they highlight in Ferraz, referring to the fact that the PNV excludes itself and it would be necessary to see what Coalición Canaria and Teruel Existe does, with Vox in the equation of the new Executive.
The Socialists would need PP and Vox together to drop below 170 and be around 165 because there, they maintain, Genoa is left without a game. If the abstention of the PSOE is necessary for an unblocking, they have already made it clear that it will not take place, which would lead to a electoral repetition.
recover the pulse
The question is how to recover the pulse after the slump that has caused the “underestimate” ruling to Feijóo in the debate. Sanchez and Ximo Puig They tried it this Saturday in Valencia. Today, Sunday, the president is in Barcelona. In this last week the only act that seems certain is the closing of the campaign in Fuenlabrada (Madrid), where the 23J race began. The rest is open.
The final stretch is highly conditioned by his obligations as head of the Executive. On Monday and Tuesday he travels to Brussels for the EU-CELAC summit, on Wednesday is the three-way debate on TVE (the popular candidate did not want to participate and it will be held between Sánchez, Yolanda Díaz and Santiago Abascal) and there is only Thursday and Friday left to organize rallies in the provinces where they detect that they are dancing seats. There will be acts of the president in the circumscriptions in which a reinforcement is required.
The week will once again be full of interviews in the media so that Sánchez’s message reaches the greatest number of people Despite this final effort, in the PSOE there are many who take defeat for granted and predict that PP and Vox “add exceedingly”.