It’s a ticking time bomb and the point of no return will soon be reached. According to the latest synthesis report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, it is hardly likely that the global community will reach the 1.5 degree target. Emissions should actually be falling now, but they have continued to rise over the past five years. As recently reported, global CO2 emissions rose to a new record level in 2022 due to the continued intensive use of coal and oil. Actually, today’s emissions should be reduced by almost half by 2030, but measured against the planned measures, this is currently not possible.
The fact that the 1.5-degree target is wobbling is nothing new. If countries continue with the measures planned so far, the planet is heading for an average global warming of 2.7 degrees (the range is between 2.2 and 3.4 degrees Celsius) by the year 2100. At the moment, it even looks as if the 1.5-degree mark could be exceeded as early as 2040. Since records began – the reference year is 1850 – the earth has already warmed by an average of 1.1 degrees. “Humanity is on thin ice – and that ice is melting fast,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said at a conference to launch the latest IPCC report. “The climate time bomb is ticking. But today’s IPCC report is a guide on how to defuse the time bomb.”
The synthesis report presented today does not contain any new scientific findings, but rather summarizes the gist of all previous findings into a guide for governments and is intended to keep the climate issue high on the agenda. The next IPCC report will not be published until 2030, which is why so much importance is currently attached to this synthesis report.
We wanted to reach the 1.5 degree target. At the moment it looks more like 2.7 degrees.
Three central measures required
Guterres named three central measures that are now necessary to achieve the 1.5 degree target after all, namely:
- Phasing out coal-fired power generation by 2040 at the latest
- Net-zero electricity generation by 2035 for developed countries
- No more oil and gas licenses
After the publication of the new IPCC synthesis report, not surprisingly, all the important environmental protection organizations spoke out. “If we continue as before, the Paris climate targets would be missed by a long way and the risk of exceeding tipping points would be accepted – with irreversible consequences. The recent increase in temperature is already costing many lives, putting pressure on ecosystems worldwide and causing billions in damage. The next few years will decide whether we can still enable a decent life on this planet for everyone,” says Global 2000.
Incidentally, according to the WWF, Austria is a latecomer. “While 20 countries around the world have managed to permanently reduce their emissions over the past decade, CO2 emissions in Austria have remained almost unchanged since 1990. In order to move from being a latecomer to becoming a pioneer again, we urgently need an ambitious climate protection law and a large-scale nature conservation program,” says Thomas Zehetner from the WWF. It is also pointed out that Austria lacks a new climate protection law.
But that’s not all. “Climate protection can only work if fossil fuels are finally rejected. The Austrian government must send oil and gas heating systems into the past by means of the Renewable Heat Act, but also legally ban oil and gas production in Austria by 2035,” says Jasmin Duregger from Greenpeace. “The report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change makes it abundantly clear that the future of humanity stands on a razor’s edge. By sticking to the climate-damaging combustion engine, Nehammer has unmasked himself as a clear climate blocker and has shown that he would rather step on the gas pedal towards the abyss than face scientific knowledge.”
Coal and oil will increase CO2 emissions worldwide to a new record in 2022