120,000 Ukrainians fleeing to neighbouring countries can Europe meet the challenge?
Author: Kang Kai
[ 中国社会科学院欧洲研究所副研究员、中国社会科学院中德合作中心主任杨解朴表示，欧洲其他国家之所以向乌克兰人敞开大门，是出于维护欧洲安全秩序、提供人道主义帮助的目的，这将对欧洲的社会、经济及政治的稳定性带来一定影响。由于与乌克兰接壤的欧洲国家的能力欠佳，有可能不能完全接纳前来的乌克兰人，德国等欧盟核心成员国的进一步支持将至关重要。 ]
[ 根据欧盟现行政策，乌克兰人可以在没有签证的情况下在欧盟国家停留长达90天。 ]
The escalating situation in Ukraine has made Ukraine’s western border extremely congested.
In the Polish border city of Medika, which borders Ukraine, there has been a long queue of vehicles recently. Slovak customs officials said that at the border checkpoint between Ukraine and Slovakia, driving through the border required up to 12 hours of waiting time. In Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, five highways heading west were also blocked.
Kelly Clements, deputy high commissioner of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, said that as of the 26th, more than 120,000 Ukrainians have sought refuge in neighboring countries, mainly Poland and Moldova, and some people have also gone to Romania, Slovakia and Hungary. A Polish border guard official said that on the 25th alone, nearly 50,000 people entered Poland from Ukraine.
German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said the German government had prepared for every conceivable situation and activated protective measures regarding the influx of Ukrainians. The governments of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, France and other countries also said they were ready for a possible influx of Ukrainians.
Yang Jiepu, associate researcher of the Institute of European Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and director of the Sino-German Cooperation Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with a reporter from China Business News that the reason why other European countries open their doors to the Ukrainians is to maintain the European security order and provide humanitarian For the purpose of helping, this will have a certain impact on the social, economic and political stability of Europe. Further support from core EU member states such as Germany will be crucial due to the inability of European countries bordering Ukraine to fully accommodate incoming Ukrainians.
Why are European countries opening their doors?
Kai Neuber, a German living in Berlin, is no stranger to Ukrainians. “Germans are accustomed to immigrants from Poland, Russia, and Ukraine. In fact, my best friend in high school was a Ukrainian, and we talked about everything at that time.” He said in an interview with a reporter from China Business News.
Under current EU policy, Ukrainians can stay in EU countries for up to 90 days without a visa. According to data released by German media, there are currently about 130,000 Ukrainians living in Germany and about 1.5 million living in Poland.
Neuber explained that the reason why Ukraine has close relations with some European countries is that on the one hand, it is geographically close, and on the other hand, the two sides have a good impression of each other’s culture.
“Ukraine is only about 1,300 kilometers away from Germany, and it is only two hours away by plane. During the Cold War, many Germans were exposed to Slavic culture and spoke highly of it,” he said.
Neuber also said that the close economic and trade ties between Ukraine and the EU have also laid a good foundation for bilateral relations. Data from the Ukrainian government shows that since 2014, the structure of Ukraine’s foreign trade has undergone significant changes. The proportion of exports to Russia has dropped from 30% before to 12% now, while the current proportion of exports to the EU accounts for more than 40%.
In Yang Jiepu’s view, from the government’s point of view, the provision of humanitarian aid, the maintenance of European security order, or the important reasons why many European countries open their doors to Ukrainians.
The German Basic Law stipulates that the right to asylum is a fundamental human right. Melk, a professor of law and philosophy at the University of Hamburg, said that the Basic Law does not mention the upper limit of the right of asylum, which shows that compared with other countries, the right of asylum in German law is quite loose.
Can Europe meet the challenge?
However, the effects of the 2015 refugee crisis are still in European memory. In the face of the influx of Ukrainians into other European countries, many media can’t help but start to worry: Can European countries meet the challenge?
Yang Jiepu believes that this will first depend on the influx of Ukrainians. If there is too much in a short period of time, it will inevitably cause greater pressure on the EU, especially the countries bordering Ukraine.
Victoria Andrievska, a spokeswoman for the UN refugee agency in Kiev, said the current influx of Ukrainians into Europe was still highly uncertain. One million Ukrainians are expected to be displaced if the situation in Ukraine escalates.
Yang Jiepu further stated that after the Ukrainians arrive in Europe, the social stability in Europe will usher in the first wave of tests.
Research by the RAND Corporation found that generally only one-third of refugees return to their homes 10 years after the end of a conflict, and the difficulty of integrating refugees into local society may affect the social stability of host countries to a certain extent. After the refugee crisis in 2015, far-right forces in European countries such as Germany, France, and Austria continued to develop. In the 2016 Brexit referendum, immigration was one of the top concerns of the British public.
Yang Jiepu also said that after the Ukrainians are resettled, a series of problems such as housing, health and education will follow, which will test the economic strength of European countries.
A study by the Cologne Institute for Economic Research (IW) in Germany shows that in the two years from 2016 to 2017, Germany spent 50 billion euros to resettle refugees, while the economic development level of the Eastern European countries that were the first to accept Ukrainians is relatively backward.
Jacob Kurtzer, a senior researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, believes that in this context, whether Europe can deal with potential migration problems depends on whether Ukraine’s neighbors can obtain some external assistance.
German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said Germany would help countries closer to Ukraine, such as Poland.
European Commission President von der Leyen said that the EU is ready to meet the basic needs of displaced Ukrainians, and the EU will add additional financial assistance to the existing $1.2 billion in aid.
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in Sina Finance APP
Responsible editor: Qi Qiqi