A wave of rare high temperature is rolling in El Niño or will bring a new peak of global warming
From Asia and Europe in the northern hemisphere to Africa and Oceania in the southern hemisphere, a wave of rare high temperatures is rolling in——
El Niño could lead to new peaks in global warming
In the past April, there have been rare high-temperature weather in the history of this season in many places around the world, especially in parts of Asia. Some meteorological experts believe that this abnormal high temperature process may be related to the return of the El Niño phenomenon that has been silent for several years.
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According to multiple media reports in India, the country experienced consecutive extremely high temperature weather in April for the second consecutive year. The “Hindustan Times” reported that from February to March this year, the temperature in many states reached record highs, and in April there were further continuous extreme high temperature weather. According to the India Meteorological Department, 48 weather stations in the country have recently recorded temperatures exceeding 42 degrees Celsius, with temperatures exceeding 44 degrees Celsius in six cities in the north and east.
The temperature of Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh, which are also South Asian countries, is also comparable to that of India. In Bangladesh, the temperature in the capital Dhaka once soared above 40 degrees Celsius, the highest temperature for the same period in 58 years, causing local roads to melt. Officials in the country said that if the hot weather cannot be relieved, a state of emergency heat will be declared in some areas.
In Southeast Asia, the hottest period of the year usually starts from April and lasts until May, but this year since late March, the temperature in some Southeast Asian countries has been hovering between 30 degrees Celsius and 40 degrees Celsius.
According to data from the Thai Meteorological Department, a high temperature of 45.4 degrees Celsius appeared at the Tak Province Meteorological Station in northwestern Thailand on April 15, breaking the country’s high temperature record for the same period in 2016. The high temperature index (the index of comprehensive air temperature and relative humidity) in the Manna District of the capital Bangkok once soared to 50.2 degrees Celsius, triggering Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s concerns about “dangerously high temperatures across Thailand”.
It is worth noting that this round of high temperature weather does not only affect South Asia and Southeast Asia, which are prone to heat waves at this time. In mid-to-late April, countries such as Japan and South Korea in East Asia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan in Central Asia all recorded or matched the highest temperature in history for the same period.
In addition, many European countries along the Mediterranean Sea, even the African countries Botswana and South Africa in the southern hemisphere, which are currently in autumn and winter, and Australia in Oceania have also recently encountered high temperatures of 30 to 40 degrees Celsius.
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The US “USA Today” newspaper quoted climatologist and weather historian Maximiliano Herrera as warning that this round of high temperature is an “unprecedented heat wave monster.”
The early April heatwave in Asia is a real concern and climate change could upend people’s expectations of seasonal changes, with summers likely to get longer and hotter, scientists said. Climate models suggest that without substantial reductions in atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, climate change will lead to more extreme weather events, including heat.
The latest report from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) made it clear that “every increment” in warming would exacerbate the effects of climate change, including more extreme heat waves. A 2022 study found that by 2100, the frequency of extreme heat waves globally will increase between three and 10 times.
As far as this year is concerned, what deserves more attention and vigilance at the moment is the possible El Niño phenomenon.
The World Meteorological Organization released its latest assessment report on May 3, saying that the possibility of an El Niño phenomenon later this year is increasing.
After three years of an exceptionally persistent La Niña event, the tropical Pacific is now El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral, neither El Niño nor La Niña, the assessment reports.
The report shows that there is a 60% chance of transitioning from ENSO neutral to El Niño between May and July this year. That probability would increase to about 70% from June to August and to about 80% from July to September.
World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Petri Taalas said that the emergence of El Niño is likely to lead to a new peak in global warming and increase the possibility of breaking temperature records.
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Experts pointed out that compared with the extreme heat itself, the premature heat is more dangerous, and being unprepared for the heat may be worse than the heat itself. Ebby, an author of the UN’s IPCC Sixth Assessment and a professor of global health at the University of Washington, said there is good evidence that premature heat often leads to higher mortality rates because the body needs some time to adapt to the heat, which is not yet well established. High temperature tolerance.
According to several Indian media reports, the high temperature and heat wave in India has caused some people to be hospitalized or die due to heat stroke. Thirteen people have died and eight others have been treated for heat stroke after an outdoor awards ceremony in Maharashtra state.
The extension of high temperature weather also poses a huge challenge to agricultural production and energy supply.
India’s “Economic Times” stated that in April last year, the country experienced continuous extreme high temperature weather, which caused a significant drop in agricultural production, and electricity consumption was about 10% higher than in previous years, resulting in large-scale power outages in many parts of India. According to media reports in Punjab and western Uttar Pradesh in India, another early heat wave this year has affected the growth of wheat and other crops, and it is expected that production may be reduced by 20%.
In addition to the impact caused by the prolonged duration, the expansion of the high temperature range is also worthy of vigilance. A recent study published in “Nature Communications” pointed out that areas that have not experienced extreme high temperature weather before may be more vulnerable to extreme heat waves due to the lack of experience and related infrastructure for local people and governments to deal with high temperatures.