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One of the focuses of world public opinion last week was the outbreak in Shanghai, China, which not only involves the issue of infectious diseases, but also the supply chain of the world economy. Among them, the US media also made a special analysis of China’s domestic politics, especially the Chinese Party Congress in the second half of this year.
Shanghai’s economy is truly connected to the world. In this sense, at the beginning of the outbreak in Shanghai, a responsible official in Shanghai said, “Shanghai is not only Shanghai for the people of Shanghai, but also for the people of the whole country.” The formulation is in line with objective reality, because Shanghai is still the “Shanghai of the world” in the true sense. And because of the pandemic, Shanghai was unprepared for the measures required by the Chinese central government to close the city to fight the epidemic, and immediately fell into a passive position after the city was closed. This not only caused complaints about people’s livelihood and economy in the local area, but also had a direct negative impact on the world economic supply chain. According to the author’s understanding, at least the manufacturing industries of the three major economic sectors of the EU, the United States and Japan have been directly affected by the closure of Shanghai, and the supply chain has been cut off. At the same time, the vast majority of infected people in Shanghai are asymptomatic and mildly infected.
The above basic situation determines that the Chinese government cannot block Shanghai for a long time in the context of the complete lack of supporting measures for the closure of the city. In that case, the world economic supply chain will no longer be able to persist. Therefore, Shanghai’s anti-epidemic method will definitely return to normal, and The return to normal in Shanghai’s anti-epidemic response will inevitably have a covering and driving effect on the entire territory of China, eventually bringing everything back to a relatively normal state.
Politics is everything
The current situation in Shanghai is caused by different ways of fighting the epidemic in form, but its essence is that different ways of fighting the epidemic are classified into different political lines, and its consequences directly affect China’s people’s livelihood, forty years The world outlook and way of life formed after the reform and opening up, as well as whether China’s own economy can develop and whether the world supply chain will be interrupted. The core issue is: China’s politics must be stable, the economy must not collapse, and people’s livelihood is the premise of all this. In China’s social environment, all this is of course determined by politics.
The current epidemic situation in Shanghai conforms to all the above judgments of the author. What is particularly impressive is that Shanghai’s original anti-epidemic method is different from the current traditional method of sealing and controlling cities and communities in China. Therefore, when China’s Vice Premier Sun Chunlan went to Shanghai, he immediately asked Shanghai to adopt Chinese domestic measures. When cities and communities are locked down in the traditional way, the shortcomings of insufficient local preparation are immediately exposed. The objective reality of this is that the closure of the city is difficult to implement, or there are many sequelae. This has formed a strong public opinion on the Chinese Internet recently, which actually constitutes social instability. What is certain is that if this situation continues, it will trigger a chain reaction within China, such as mutual blockades between various regions in China, as well as dissatisfaction in areas that have been blocked, and driven by public opinion in Shanghai, sparked a national response. Once this happens, international public opinion and politicians in relevant countries and regions will inevitably participate, and finally an international wave will be formed. This tendency has actually been shown now. As far as the author knows, the staff of the consulates of relevant countries in Shanghai are tracking the local people’s situation every day, understanding the relevant situation, and maintaining close communication with the relevant institutions in their own countries.
At present, it is worth noting that there are new situations in the solution of the Shanghai issue, mainly: it is possible to adopt loose and non-complete blockade methods to solve the problem.
International media noticed that on April 15, on China Central Television’s “News Network”, Sun Chunlan, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, talked about several key pieces of information: First, the spread index of the epidemic in Shanghai has increased from the original one. 2.27 has dropped to 1.23 now; secondly, it is just around the corner to realize the goal of clearing the society as soon as possible. According to Wang Guiqiang, an expert on joint prevention and control of the State Council, former chairman of the Infectious Diseases Branch of the Chinese Medical Association, and director of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Peking University First Hospital: “At present, the epidemic transmission index in Shanghai has dropped to 1.23, which means that one infected person is currently infected. It can infect 1.23 people, and this transmission index must have decreased compared with the previous one, which also shows that it is very close to the current round of epidemic control.” According to reports: if this transmission index drops to 1, it can be shown that this round of epidemic situation is basically Not spreading.
The above information is consistent with the information shown in the China CDC’s April 13 announcement on the prevention and control requirements for people in home isolation, and the direction of epidemic prevention is to operate in a relaxed direction.
The author can boldly predict: maybe a week later, Shanghai will announce a phased victory in the fight against the epidemic; then, according to the practice announced by the China CDC on April 13, people with problems will be quarantined at home, mainly asymptomatic infections and mild symptoms. After at least two nucleic acid tests for patients who were not infected, those who did not have any problems were allowed to move freely and relatively freely; finally, Shanghai announced the end of the epidemic.
The question of great concern here is, after Shanghai announces the end of the epidemic, can Shanghai and other parts of the country achieve free movement? After all, Shanghai has just experienced a major epidemic. The author believes that after the epidemic in Shanghai is over, it will take at least one month to isolate Shanghai from other areas, especially the surrounding areas, so that the free movement of people can be achieved. At that time, it is possible to consider the method of entering and exiting the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone with a pass in that year, treating Shanghai as a special area, and setting special requirements for the issuance of the pass. The basis for this is that China has a vast territory and a large population. If the policy announced by the China CDC on April 13 is implemented nationwide, it will take a period of preparation. The author believes that at the beginning, four cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, which are closely related to the international supply chain, can be selected for pilot projects.
In addition, there is another feasible way to restrict local officials from sealing cities and communities in layers:
The central government of China clearly requires local governments: assessment of local cadres should include not only epidemic prevention indicators, but also GDP indicators; it cannot only require epidemic prevention without assessing GDP. In this way, local cadres will inevitably implement the home isolation policy of China Disease Control and Prevention according to the specific local conditions.
Lessons from Shanghai need to be summed up
At present, China’s handling of the epidemic in Shanghai is very important, which is closely related to the stability of local residents’ emotions and behaviors, and also affects whether residents in other parts of China are currently cooperating with the government’s anti-epidemic measures to block cities and communities; This directly affects whether the international economic supply chain will be cut off, and it also affects the Chinese economy, which has already declined under the epidemic environment. Therefore, we must draw lessons from the outbreak of the epidemic in Shanghai.
From the author’s point of view, the lesson of the outbreak in Shanghai is that it is necessary to combine precise prevention and control with a high degree of vigilance against the epidemic and rapid action, and at the same time implement the home quarantine notice issued by China CDC on April 13. In doing so, the chance of errors will be reduced.
In terms of specific operations, firstly, the problem must be dealt with immediately. It must not be like the outbreak in Shanghai, where the problem is discovered and the decision is delayed. Of course, this is related to the late issuance of the home quarantine notice by China CDC.
Followed by grid-based isolation of asymptomatic and mildly infected people who account for more than 90% of infected people. Mildly infected people can be isolated at home according to the unit of community, building, street or even a district. Those with moderate or higher infection are sent to hospital for treatment.
Finally, the release of home isolation must have documents issued by doctors and relevant institutions before the home isolation can be lifted.
In short, after more than two years of epidemic, China should adjust its anti-epidemic policies according to the new situation of the outbreak, so that the anti-epidemic can return to normal.
(Note: The author is the secretary-general of the International Public Opinion Research Center of the Charhar Institute and a researcher of the Peninsula Peace Research Center. This article only represents the author’s personal views. The editor-in-charge email [email protected])