[Epoch Times March 03, 2022](The Epoch Times reporter Liu Yi comprehensive report) Russia and Ukraine are the world‘s largest exporters of wheat, and the war between Russia and Ukraine has pushed up the world wheat price. Some mainland professionals believe that due to the impact of the war, this year Continental wheat prices will continue to rise.
According to a report by Caixin on March 3, CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) wheat, a representative indicator of the global wheat futures market, has accelerated its rise since February 17, with a cumulative increase of more than 26% in nine trading days, the highest since 2012. the highest level. On March 2, CBOT wheat hit the daily limit, reaching a high of $10.59 per bushel. This is the first time in 14 years that wheat futures prices have broken above $10/bushel.
“Daily Economic News” reported that the global wheat futures price on March 1 was 9.84 US dollars / bushel. Ma Youyuan, an analyst at Galaxy Futures, said that Russia and Ukraine together account for about 29 percent of global wheat exports. The market is worried that the military action will affect the transportation of grains. If the export of Russia and Ukraine is restricted, the international trade flow will be strained, which has caused the CBOT wheat to rise sharply recently.
Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that Russia exports a large amount of wheat. Once Russia is sanctioned by Western countries, wheat may not be able to enter the international market, which will have a greater impact on the global supply side.
Ma Youyuan believes that the price of wheat has risen sharply, and the cost of imported wheat in China will also rise significantly. At the same time, the bullish market sentiment will also drive the spot price of wheat in China higher.
Continental wheat prices start 2021 with continued gains. The spot price of ordinary wheat in Zhengzhou has risen from over RMB 2,400/ton in early 2021 to RMB 2,830/ton in early 2022; the wholesale price of high-quality wheat in the domestic market has risen from RMB 2,540/ton in early 2021 to RMB 3,150/ton in early 2022 .
Li Guoxiang believes that the reasons for the rise in wheat prices in mainland China in 2021 are firstly driven by international prices; secondly, corn prices have risen, and a large amount of wheat has replaced corn as feed grains; and some areas will suffer natural disasters in 2021, resulting in reduced production in some wheat-producing areas .
Regarding the trend of wheat prices in mainland China this year, Ma Xiaohehe, former vice president of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that considering factors such as inflation and market expectations, domestic wheat prices are expected to maintain an upward trend in the first half of 2022.
In addition, the Russian-Ukrainian war also affected the price of corn in China. “China News Weekly” reported on February 25 that in 2021, the mainland will import grains worth 3.2 billion US dollars from Ukraine, mainly involving corn and barley, with a total import volume of about 12 million tons. Ukraine ranks as the third largest source of grain imports that year. . Among them, 8.24 million tons of corn were imported from Ukraine, accounting for 29.07%.
“China Times” quoted analysts as saying that as the war between Russia and Ukraine intensifies, the price of corn imports will be pushed up in the short term. Imported corn is mainly used for feed, which means that feed prices may rise further.
The price of corn in mainland China has risen from 1,900 yuan per ton at the end of last year to 2,600 yuan per ton at present.
Responsible editor: Lin Congwen