[Epoch Times, April 21, 2022](The Epoch Times reporter Zhang Ting comprehensive report) France will hold a presidential runoff on Sunday (April 24), incumbent President Emmanuel Macron and far-right challenger Marine Le Pen will be held at that time. Fight again. A change of power in France could alter the political balance in Europe, reshape relations with China and Russia, and affect France’s position in European and world trade negotiations.
On April 20, Macron and Le Pen held the most crucial televised debate before the election. The Nikkei Asian Review published an article on the same day saying that this election is very important for both Xi Jinping and Putin.
Both candidates are keen to strengthen France’s presence in Asia and strengthen its stance against China, the Nikkei said. But their approaches are different: Macron sees Europe as a whole as a channel to check and balance the power of global powers, while Le Pen believes that France should maintain good relations with Russia to prevent the formation of a Sino-Russian alliance.
Although polls before the runoff on the 24th show that Macron will defeat Le Pen again, given the fierce battle, no one will deny the possibility of Le Pen taking over the Elysee Palace. The Nikkei said Macron had lost his image as a freshman in the 2017 election.
Both candidates focus primarily on domestic issues and the war in Ukraine. When it comes to trade, they have very different views.
Le Pen is a strong opponent of globalization, which she believes is harmful to France. She also said France’s relationship with China was uneven. In an interview with Nikkei last year, she said the trade deal between Japan and the EU was “pretty balanced,” but she opposed such a deal with China and said she did not trust Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Macron, however, is a proud globalist. He has backed the now-frozen EU-China investment deal despite being attacked at home from left and right.
Antoine Bondaz, an analyst at the Foundation for Strategic Research, a French think tank focusing on international security and defense, said, “In recent years, France and Europe have become increasingly ) policy is getting tougher.” Bondaz mentioned the CCP’s human rights violations in Xinjiang.
He added that, in addition to the “change in tone”, over the past few years there has been “a willingness in Europe to show a united front against China”.
Le Pen condemned the “conformity” of Western leaders towards Beijing in recent years. She told a news conference on foreign affairs on April 13 that she hoped to have a relationship of reciprocity with China.
Macron also appears to be playing the China card, recently stepping up France’s diplomatic stance towards China.
“When the French president held a meeting with President Xi Jinping, the Chinese sanctions against Lithuania were clearly mentioned,” Bondaz said.
“Not many countries send nuclear attack submarines to the South China Sea. Not many countries send an intelligence ship through the Taiwan Strait to demonstrate freedom of navigation,” he said, referring to the French navy’s activities in February and October 2021.
After the 2017 presidential election, Le Pen dropped her Brexit rhetoric. “We have to change the EU from within,” she said in a May 2021 interview with Nikkei, a change from her position seeking to leave the EU.
Le Pen said if elected, she would propose India becoming a permanent member of the UN Security Council.
Her concerns about the CCP are also related to her concerns about Russia. Le Pen believes that a Sino-Russian alliance could be formed if France fails to maintain a dialogue relationship with Moscow.
“Although we have very deep differences on Russia, we must try to prevent Russia from falling into Beijing’s arms,” she told the Nikkei in May 2021.
She said that if European countries can talk to Russia through diplomatic channels, they will keep Russia in the arms of Europe.
On a strategic level, she vowed to develop military partnerships in Asia, citing Japan and South Korea. She has said she wants to strengthen France’s military presence on its Pacific territories.
Macron, like Le Pen, distrusts Beijing, but is keen to tap the potential of Europe, emphasizing that Europe should become independent and not become a vassal of China and the United States.
But Bondaz said no one believed that “Europe can weave its own path between the US and China on a geopolitical level”.
“There is no third way for Europe,” he said, “because the EU is just an economic actor; it is not a real geopolitical actor, even if it is increasingly so.”
Macron’s stance on Beijing, on the other hand, illustrates the complex relationship between France and China.
In February 2021, Macron said in an interview with the US think tank “Atlantic Council” that China is “a partner, a competitor and a systemic adversary”. He has tried to stay tough on the economy and politics, but wants to work with Beijing on issues such as climate change.
At the Group of Seven (G7) summit in June 2021, Macron said that the G7 is not a club that is hostile to Beijing, and that the G7 hopes to cooperate with China in various fields, “We intend to cooperate with China in any international Cooperation on matters, including climate, including a genuine willingness to abide by the rules of international trade, including development policies, managing Africa’s debt, and so on.”
In an interview with Nikkei in May 2021, Le Pen said that if elected president, her France would continue to stand up against the Chinese Communist Party’s growing toughness in the Indo-Pacific region. She also said that France’s opportunity is to demonstrate that France is capable of being an element of bringing peace to the region.
Responsible editor: Lin Yan#