- John Simpson
- BBC World Affairs Editor
image source,Getty Images
Russian President Vladimir Putin
The atmosphere now feels like the end of an era. When the Berlin Wall came down in November 1989, we thought that the division of the world into East and West was a thing of the past. With the ideological conflict between capitalism and communism gone, there is a sense that we are all basically on the same side.
The problem is that for Vladimir Putin, a former KGB officer in East Germany, the collapse of the former Soviet Union appears to have evolved into a bitter personal resentment that has grown stronger over time.
Ukraine, once an important turf for the Soviet Union, is now seceding from the Russian Federation, an affront to Putin’s beliefs.
Russia has signed an international agreement to accept the state borders of the newly formed Ukraine, but that doesn’t matter. In 2014, Putin found a way to take over the peninsula by sending his soldiers to infiltrate Crimea. This is the most emblematic Russian cultural area in Ukraine.
image source,Rex Features
Putin in the 1980s
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The Russian army blocked the area, and he effectively made it part of Russia after a referendum was held in which the majority of ethnic Russians were held. This violates international law, but the West still insists it can do business with Putin’s Russia.
While there were speeches and sanctions, nothing made President Putin or his colleagues seriously reflect.
The same thing happened when Putin’s enemies, and those who were seen as traitors by the former KGB, now the FSB, were poisoned, shot or otherwise dealt with in the UK and Europe – the West warned and implemented New sanctions, but Putin’s Russia is ready to accept them in full.
In the past 10 years, Russia has begun to form a new bloc with China. It is not necessarily hostile to the West, but supports each other in the face of Western criticism.
President Xi Jinping and President Putin have established a mutual aid group. Now, China refuses to condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine, and Taiwanese people are beginning to wonder if it will be their turn next time. Xi Jinping has always refused to give up force to unify Taiwan.
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Putin and Xi Jinping meet in Beijing on February 4, 2022.
In conclusion, the world is more worrying now than it was a few years ago.
By comparison, the old Cold War years were much simpler and, in most cases, the rules were much clearer—if one side invaded the space of the other, there was always the threat of total mutual destruction. So, while war loomed uncomfortably more than once, it never ended.
But after the fall of the communist government, the old rulebook was torn up. The lines are now so blurred that no one knows where the red line is.
In hindsight, some politicians and academics believe that after the fall of the Berlin Wall, NATO should perhaps change its entire strategy: it should avoid humiliating Moscow by letting the former Soviet states of Eastern Europe join NATO, and humiliate Moscow in a way that under Putin Russia’s seemingly confrontational approach has them lined up.
The mere suggestion that Ukraine might one day join NATO (though that has been seen as unlikely) has angered the Kremlin and helped convince President Vladimir Putin that he must deal with Ukraine once and for all.
Everyone knows that this is his policy, and only his own.
image source,Getty Images
Russian soldiers patrolling Crimea in 2014.
Many Russian politicians and even some major military figures came out against it before the invasion. But Putin will not change his mind. If he’s rolling the dice to win the game, it must succeed now, and Russia must emerge as the clear winner.
But military adventures like this are notoriously error-prone.
Eight years ago, Putin achieved success in Crimea and his position at home has been greatly consolidated. Perhaps he will succeed again, break through the Ukrainian Armed Forces defenses, make some significant progress, and then quickly call back and stage a victory parade.
It’s entirely possible, but let’s say it turns out otherwise. If Russian soldiers start dying in large numbers and sanctions against Russia start to take effect, Putin’s own standing will suffer.
image source,Getty Images
So what will he do? There is only one answer – he will suppress any domestic criticism more severely than he is now in the name of national security. Russia remains a surprisingly open society compared to the past.
This of course cannot be maintained. Russia’s economy will suffer, and China’s help won’t help.
So Putin, who seems to have launched an attack on Ukraine out of a 30-year-old grudge against the collapse of the old Soviet empire, could bring Russia back to Soviet times.
The West has long tried to pretend that Russia is just another country we can do business with, but they may find that the old days are back.