The conviction of the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem İmamoğlu, for insulting a public official – to almost three years in prison – could prove to be a boomerang for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The recent past in Turkey could be a key to understanding the future. In that case, a repeating nightmare for the Turkish president. In 2019, in the last local elections in Istanbul, İmamoğlu won a massive and unexpected victory, in terms of votes. In fact, after the elections in the first round were canceled due to irregularities, Ekrem İmamoğlu, mayor for a few weeks, urged to look at the appointment in June, the date of the new elections, as a struggle for democracy and justice, against the growing despotism by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The second victory was overwhelming.
It clearly showed how little the cancellation of the first electoral round had been appreciated, appearing as an act of a political nature, a rejection of the rules of the democratic game, an insult to the national will. And today, at least in the polls, this is precisely the Achilles’ heel of the Turkish leader. The main reasons related to his decline in support are mainly two: the poor management of the economic crisis and the growing authoritarianism of a person who is now alone in command.
If on the one hand this situation could turn against him, on the other it certainly ties – today – the hands of the opposition, united but without a real leader. We will therefore have to wait for the verdict of the Cassation which, in all likelihood, will take place after June 2023. A fateful date for the fate of the country: the month of the long-awaited presidential and political elections, the outcome of which is by no means certain. If the Cassation, confirming the sentence, gives its verdict earlier, Imamoğlu will not be able to run. If, on the other hand, Imamoğlu is elected president and the verdict comes after June, he would have to resign immediately. An impasse that does not only concern the June elections but also future local elections. Even those are in danger for the mayor of Istanbul: they will be held in 2024 and – also in this case – the charismatic figure of the opposition would be prevented from re-nomination. In short, Turkey is not Istanbul, but what happens in Istanbul certainly echoes throughout Turkey.
History could therefore repeat itself, but not only the most recent one. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, at the beginning of his political career, was the mayor of Istanbul. In 1997 he publicly read the poetry of a conservative Turkish poet and was sentenced to ten months in prison the following year. From this situation of great injustice, he emerged strengthened and victorious. It can be said that his irresistible political ascent began precisely in those years. One thing is undeniable, the frenzy of the Turkish leader to look to the future, as the only guiding star of his political action, could turn against him. In June 2023, the neglect of the past, the iron fist in the present and the longing for the future could cost him more dearly than ever.