U.S. President Joe Biden warned Beijing in a recent phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping that it would face sanctions if it provided substantial aid to Moscow. However, an insider disclosed that a large amount of materials from the Northeast Military Region of China have been secretly supplied to Russia.
Although both Moscow and Beijing have both denied the accusation that the CCP has aided Russia, the US media recently quoted a senior EU official as saying that EU leaders have “very reliable information” that the CCP is considering providing military assistance to Russia.
In addition, according to the latest combat report issued by the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the 22nd, the Russian army’s ammunition and food have faced a state of emergency, and it is estimated that the longest “will not last for 3 days”, as is the fuel reserve. The report also said that the Russian army used easily attacked tankers to transport fuel because it could not lay oil pipelines.
In response to the current stalemate in the Russian-Ukrainian war, Western countries seem to pin their hopes of a truce on the participation of the CCP, and feel that Beijing may persuade Putin to stop the war. In this regard, Voice of Hope specially interviewed Zheng Qinmo, director of the Department of Foreign Affairs of Tamkang and Guo Yuren, executive director of the National Policy Research Institute. Their opinions are as follows:
First of all, Zheng Qinmo said that the Ukraine war has indeed turned into a war of attrition. When Putin does not have enough victories to boast of the victory of the war to the people, the war should be difficult to end. Therefore, even if the two sides have held many negotiations, it is still difficult to reach a consensus. I am afraid that there will be peace only after the war has a clear victory or defeat. conditions of.
Guo Yuren said that with the support of the United States and the international community, Ukraine’s will and ability to resist can still be maintained. Plus Russia is not going all out to attack Ukraine. It has turned into an ongoing war of attrition. If the war could end in the future, there are only two reasons. First, the CCP intervenes to mediate, but it is very difficult because the conditions of Putin and the Western world must be met at the same time. Second, Putin has reached a staged military goal and is willing to negotiate on the condition of the new status quo.
Guo Yuren said that Western countries believe that the CCP is the most qualified to intervene in mediation. But there must also be two conditions. The first condition is that it must be accepted by both Russia and the Western world. Second, the timing of intervening in mediation must be when Russia has achieved its military goals, or Russia clearly knows that the original military goals cannot be achieved.
Guo Yuren emphasized that the time has passed for the CCP to turn its back on Russia. At present, the CCP can only damage control, which means that in the current embarrassing position, it tries its best to try not to favor Russia or Ukraine on the surface, and wait for an opportunity to intervene in mediation.
Zheng Qinmo believes that if Western countries pin their hopes of a truce on the CCP, it is tantamount to seeking skin from a tiger, and Beijing is also waiting for such an opportunity to profit from both sides. As long as the CCP cooperates with Western sanctions, Russia’s war will be unsustainable, but the CCP hopes to hold on to Putin and wait for the opportunity to blackmail the West.
Therefore, Zheng Qinmo said that for the CCP, the current attitude should be economic aid instead of military aid to Russia, which can support Putin without completely cutting off relations with the United States and Europe, and may even be subject to secondary Western sanctions. The Chinese Communist Party has officially stated that sanctions will only undermine the post-pandemic reconstruction of the global economy, and it has also indicated that it will provide comprehensive economic assistance to Russia. The CCP’s current strategy can be seen from the massive import of oil and gas from Russia in March.
In addition, according to a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) official on the 22nd, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was invited to speak at the NATO special summit on March 24 on Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and seek assistance to end Russia’s aggression. Uk action. It is believed that Zelensky’s most urgent need for assistance is to close Ukraine’s airspace.
In this regard, Zheng Qinmo said that the current invitation to Zelensky to speak has become a kind of political correctness, showing support for Ukraine. However, there is still no indication that NATO is willing to intervene militarily in the Ukraine war. But what is certain is that NATO is already preparing for a possible escalation of the war. This time, Biden personally went to Brussels to participate in the NATO summit, mainly to coordinate member states to increase support for Ukraine and prepare for possible future changes in the situation.