Xinhua News Agency, Tehran, August 3 (International Observation) Faced with internal and external challenges, whether the new Iranian president can break the situation
Xinhua News Agency reporter Gao Wencheng and Wang Shoubao
Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei authorized Leahy as the new president on the 3rd. Leahy will be formally sworn in in Parliament on the 5th.
Analysts pointed out that Iran is currently facing a series of internal and external challenges such as economic difficulties, severe epidemics, continued sanctions, and difficulty in breaking through the Iranian nuclear negotiations. Leahy shoulders a heavy burden.
The economic situation is severe
Leahy said at the authorization ceremony that day that the Iranian people have conveyed their message of “change, justice, and combating corruption, poverty and discrimination” through participating in the election. The new government will work to deal with people’s livelihood issues such as inflation, employment, and housing. Repair the Iranian people’s trust in the government.
Leahy’s speech reflects the serious economic difficulties that Iran is currently facing. The United States unilaterally withdrew from the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue in May 2018 and restarted sanctions against Iran. Especially since the implementation of the “zero exemption” blockade on Iranian oil exports in May 2019, the Iranian economy has suffered a huge blow, shrinking by 7.6% in 2019. Since then, the Iranian economy has improved. It is estimated that the actual growth rate reached 1.5% last year. However, problems such as the sharp depreciation of the currency and the high unemployment rate are still outstanding.
The severe new crown epidemic also poses a threat to Iran’s economy. The number of newly confirmed cases in a single day in Iran has repeatedly hit record highs. According to data released by the Iranian Ministry of Health on August 2, the country had 37,189 new confirmed cases that day, the highest record since the outbreak, with a total of more than 3.94 million confirmed cases. Ministry of Health officials predict that the epidemic will continue to rise in the next 10 days.
Iranian analysts pointed out that whether Iran can get rid of its economic difficulties depends on two major factors, one is whether it can control the new crown epidemic, and the other is whether the US sanctions against Iran can be lifted.
Iran nuclear negotiations face difficulties
To lift U.S. sanctions on Iran, the U.S. must be brought back to the Iran nuclear agreement reached in 2015. However, the current progress of the negotiations between the two countries in Vienna on the issue of resuming compliance is not satisfactory. The indirect negotiations between the two sides have been held for 6 rounds since they started on April 6 this year, but the differences between the two countries are still serious.
There is no lack of pessimism about the prospects of negotiations between the two countries. Iran has repeatedly criticized the Biden administration for maintaining sanctions and following the Trump administration’s old path. Yitong News Agency recently published a commentary article saying that the Biden administration’s excessive adherence to the Trump administration’s sanctions policy may intensify Tehran’s pessimism and even close the diplomatic window. Khamenei has recently denounced that the United States and other Western countries are not credible in the Iranian nuclear talks.
The U.S. has also frequently shouted and put pressure on it, stating that the negotiations cannot continue indefinitely. The New York Times recently reported that officials in the Biden administration have become very pessimistic about the possibility of returning to the Iran nuclear agreement in the short term, worrying that the new Iranian government will speed up nuclear research and production, and put forward new requirements on the United States.
Just as Leahy is about to take office, the attack on a tanker managed by an Israeli company in the waters off Oman on July 29 has added new contradictions between Iran and the United States and the West. The United States, Britain and other countries accused Iran of launching the attack and threatened to take response measures, which Iran firmly denies. Analysts believe that this matter will bring new uncertainty to the Vienna negotiations.
Can Leahy open up the situation?
Analysts believe that in the face of internal and external challenges, Leahy may open up the situation from the following two aspects.
The first is to develop relations with neighboring countries. Leahy stated many times during the campaign that neighboring countries will be his diplomatic focus. In a recent telephone conversation with Oman Sultan Khasham and Turkmen President Berdymuhamedov, he also stated that expanding relations with neighboring countries is the priority and top priority of the new Iranian government.
Liu Lanyu, an Iranian expert at the Institute of International and Regional Studies at Tsinghua University, believes that with the continued sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran, trade between Iran and regional countries has shown an upward trend. Iran will continue to ease and develop relations with countries in the region, and increase economic and trade exchanges with countries in the region, so as to relieve external pressure and get rid of economic difficulties.
Second, develop relations with other major powers in the world. Leahy said at the first press conference after his election on June 21 that successive Iranian governments since the victory of the Islamic Revolution have always been committed to developing relations with China, and Iran will continue to work hard to tap the potential of bilateral relations and promote the development of friendly relations between the two countries. .
Hamid Wafae, director of the Asian Studies Center at the University of Tehran in Iran, predicts that the new Iranian government will strengthen communication and cooperation with China and Russia, among which there is great potential for cooperation with China in the field of economic construction.
Fan Hongda, a professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai International Studies University, believes that the Leahy government will increase its focus on “looking eastward” in diplomacy, and it will also seek to diversify Iran’s diplomacy.
As for the resumption of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement, experts believe that the Leahy administration will continue to negotiate with the US, but the difficulty of the negotiations will increase. Fan Hongda said that the Iranian nuclear talks involve whether the international sanctions against Iran can be lifted. If the sanctions cannot be lifted, it will create insurmountable obstacles to Iran’s development. The Iranian people cannot bear it for a long time. Therefore, it is difficult for the Leahy government to ignore the Iranian nuclear talks. Liu Lanyu said that Leahy, as a conservative, has always been tough on the United States. The Leahy government may charge higher prices and make fewer concessions in negotiations, and the negotiation between the two parties may become more difficult.
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