[Foresight Quick Review]Rumor has it that he was invited to join AUKUS in Japan’s overnight armed forces? | Shanghai closed city | Russian-Ukrainian war

[NTDTV, Beijing time, April 14, 2022]Hello friends, today is April 13 (Wednesday), welcome to “Foresight Quick Review”, I am Tang Jingyuan.

Today’s focus: It is rumored that Japan was invited to join AUKUS, why did the United States reverse its attitude? Armed overnight! What do the two high-precision weapons mean to China and Japan? The relationship between the big red V’s iron fist and a recording: I am very afraid.

In previous shows, we have mentioned to our friends that Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has had a huge impact on the geopolitics of the whole world, and in the Indo-Pacific region, the first domino to fall in this shock is the Korean election. . After a fierce competition, Yoon Sek-yue, who firmly advocates that national security takes priority over economic interests, was elected as the new president of South Korea, which caused a lot of shock to the geopolitics of East Asia.

The first topic we want to discuss with you today is the second domino that fell in the shock wave of the Ukrainian war. This is the big news that Japan was invited to join the AUKUS alliance of the United States, Britain and Australia. The impact of this news on the Indo-Pacific region, in a sense, is no less than that of Germany’s overnight rearmament, because it basically means that Japan has directly escalated on the road to rebuilding the advanced military power of a normal country. A big step.

Just yesterday, Sankei Shimbun, a major Japanese newspaper, published an exclusive report. The article quoted several Japanese officials as saying that the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia had informally asked Japan to join the AUKUS alliance, mainly for the purpose of Incorporate Japanese technological capabilities into hypersonic weapon development and enhance coalition electronic warfare capabilities.

In addition, alliance members will integrate with Japan’s technological capabilities to create synergies in advanced technology fields such as networking, artificial intelligence and quantum technology.

Before discussing why this news is so important, let’s briefly touch on three contexts.

U.S. denied Japan would join

The first context is the US attitude directly related to whether Japan joins the AUKUS alliance. On September 22 last year, shortly after the AUKUS alliance signed the agreement, White House spokesman Psaki made it clear that the trilateral military agreement between the United States and Britain, Australia and New Zealand would not include Japan and India.

Psaki also joked at the time that if Japan and India joined, then “AUUKUS – what would it become? JAUKUS? JAIAUKUS?”

No one expected that Japan’s participation in AUKUS was already on the agenda after only half a year, and the “Sankei Shimbun” report did say so. If Japan joined the alliance, the name of the agreement might be “” JAUKUS”.

Hypersonic weapons US-UK-Australia technology sharing

The second context is of course the most striking keyword in the news: hypersonic weapons.

We all know that only a week ago on April 5, the US military announced that it had successfully tested a hypersonic missile using scramjet technology recently, with a speed of more than 5 times the speed of sound and a flight altitude of more than 19,000. meters, the flight distance exceeds 555 kilometers.

Then on the same day, AUKUS immediately issued a joint statement stating that the United States, Britain and Australia would deepen cooperation and jointly develop hypersonic weapons. A week later, the “Sankei Shimbun” broke the news that Japan was also invited by the three countries to participate in the joint development work.

I think almost everyone can understand this subtext. The so-called joint development of Yunyun is just a diplomatic rhetoric, and technology sharing is the core.

US-India 2+2 Dialogue

The third background is the India mentioned by Psaki just now.

Just the day before yesterday (Monday), the United States and India held a 2+2 dialogue between foreign and defense ministers in Washington, and on the same day, Biden and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also held a video meeting. This is the first high-level diplomatic interaction between the United States and India since the outbreak of the Ukraine war. Judging from the joint statement issued by the two sides after the event, there are three points of interest in this interaction: one is that although Modi and the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not name names, they both clearly condemned the Butcha Massacre, which is a valuable statement.

The second is a commitment by the two sides to deepen defense cooperation and participate in each other’s defense supply chains to promote close cooperation in new areas such as space, artificial intelligence and cyber. Note that there is a lot of overlap with AUKUS here.

The third is that the United States still hopes that all allies and partners will not “buy more” Russian energy, is willing to help India diversify its energy sources, and discussed the possibility of replacing Russia as India’s main defense partner.

Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar responded with a very subtle remark. He said that the energy that India buys from Russia in a month may not be the amount that European countries buy from Russia in one afternoon.

US pushes up Indo-Pacific regional arms race overnight

Knowing these three backgrounds, let’s go back and look at the fact that Japan was invited to join the AUKUS alliance, and we will see that this series of actions and Ukraine won the first stage of the war, and the overall focus of the war shifted from Kyiv to the second. The second stage, the offensive and defensive battle against the Udong area, took place in the same period in a complementary manner.

Therefore, we can draw a preliminary conclusion that if Russia has indeed acted as a strategic barrier for the CCP, then the validity period of this barrier has basically passed, and the United States has quickly adjusted its strategic focus back to the Indo-Pacific. The Ukrainian war situation has pushed the Indo-Pacific regional arms race to a higher level almost overnight.

Now Russia has lowered its strategic goals to ensure that it is a face project to annex the two states of Ukraine. Many friends may have seen it, and public opinion is beginning to discuss the possibility of a decisive battle between the two sides in Wudong. We will talk about this topic in the future, but in any case, the performance of the Russian military in the first stage has been clearly seen by the United States. It only needs to provide Ukraine with sufficient economic, technical and intelligence assistance, plus some even relatively The old heavy equipment is enough to make Russia tired.

What do the two high-precision weapons mean to China and Japan?

Returning to our topic just now, Japan was invited to join the two most important fields of AUKUS, one is hypersonic weapons, and the other is electronic warfare capabilities. What is special about these two fields? To put it bluntly, these two are the offensive weapons that the CCP most fears, and both are symbolic moves by Japan to switch from defense to offense in response to its military deployment in the Taiwan Strait.

Regarding hypersonic missiles, Japan itself has been developing it for a long time. In the defense white paper released by Japan in 2018, 13 new weapon research and development projects were mentioned, among which the project of “high-speed sliding air bomb” was mentioned, which is actually a hypersonic weapon project.

In fact, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force now has a variety of subsonic or supersonic anti-ship missiles with advanced performance, which is enough to deal with the naval threats from neighboring North Korea and Russia. However, such weapons still have limited penetration capability when dealing with new large surface warships such as aircraft carriers, amphibious assault ships, and 10,000-ton missile destroyers. Therefore, having a hypersonic weapon is equivalent to having a “killer” weapon against large warships such as aircraft carriers.

Once Japan has hypersonic weapons, how can the CCP prevent it?

To put it bluntly, once Japan has hypersonic weapons, the first question the CCP has to consider is not how to kill the U.S. aircraft carrier, but how not to kill its own aircraft carrier or the most advanced 0.55 million-ton large destroyer.

As for Japan’s electronic warfare capabilities, here we briefly review an old news. On March 18, 2021, the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force announced the establishment of the “301st Electronic Warfare Company” specializing in electronic warfare missions in Kumamoto City, central Kyushu.

This news once made the CCP extremely uneasy. The CCP Military Daily published an article to criticize it at the time. The title was as follows: In an attempt to break through the post-war institutional constraints – Japanese electronic warfare troops grew “fangs”

Why is the CCP so sensitive? The reason is also very simple. One is that the boundaries between “offensive” and “defense” in the field of electronic warfare are very blurred. Japan may use electronic warfare as a breakthrough to break through the shackles of the pacifist constitution. Another reason is the deployment of Japanese electronic warfare units to its southernmost territory, Yonaguni Island, just 110 kilometers from the Taiwan Strait.

Moreover, Japan’s latest “Network Electronic Warfare System” (NEWS) has a spectrum that covers from UHF to EHF, that is, covers most of the working frequency bands of military satellites, microwave communications and radars, and has The ability to actively attack to disable it.

Also, the Japanese Self-Defense Force began to develop “long-range electronic warfare aircraft” and land-deployed “air-to-air electronic warfare devices” last year, which are mainly aimed at sending powerful electromagnetic waves to incoming aircraft to disable their radar functions. So, you can see it clearly, the possession of hypersonic weapons is aimed at abolishing the CCP’s main offensive capability at sea, while electronic warfare is aimed at abolishing the CCP’s airborne missiles, fighter jets, and space offensive capabilities.

The war in the Taiwan Strait is essentially a naval and air force-based operation, so we can see that Japan’s participation in the AUKUS alliance is highly targeted, which is the first level of significance of the idea.

Once Japan joins AUKUS, it is one step away from acquiring nuclear submarines

The second layer of significance is that once Japan joins AUKUS, it is basically only one step away from acquiring nuclear submarines.

As early as last September, when the four candidates of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan competed for the position of president, that is, the candidate for the new prime minister, there was a heated debate on whether Japan should consider the issue of having nuclear submarines. At that time, it was 2:2, with Kono Taro and Takaichi Sanae support, and Kishida Fumio and Noda Seiko, who were later elected prime ministers, were relatively cautious.

But it should be noted that after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war and Putin’s repeated public nuclear threats, many of Japan’s ideas have changed dramatically. As we all know, Japan has always adhered to the three non-nuclear principles of “not manufacturing, not possessing, and not importing nuclear weapons” since the war. But this brings up a very interesting question: Do nuclear attack submarines count as nuclear weapons? This submarine is nuclear powered, but only carries conventional missiles and torpedoes as weapons, so there is a kind of ambiguity.

This issue is more complicated to say, and the disputes between countries are also relatively large. But one thing I think is basically certain, that is, whether according to the definition of “nuclear weapons” in the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, or according to the definition of enriched uranium by the International Atomic Energy Agency from low to high levels, including nuclear submarines, surface nuclear power The purpose of nuclear power for military and civilian nuclear-powered ships, including ships, is only to drive the ships to sail, and under normal circumstances, they only need to use “low-enriched uranium” with a concentration of less than 3.5%, so strictly speaking, they do not belong to the category of nuclear weapons.

We see that Australia’s initial motivation for joining AUKUS was to acquire nuclear attack submarines, but Morrison insists Australia is not violating the country’s “nuclear-free” policy, nor the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. There are many similar examples. For example, as early as the Soviet era, it has repeatedly leased attack nuclear submarines to India, which has not yet possessed nuclear weapons, but no country has accused it of violating the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. There are also countries such as South Korea that have been seeking to develop “nuclear-powered merchant ships” and have never been accused of violating the treaty.

Therefore, from this point of view, if Japan wants to acquire nuclear submarines after joining AUKUS, it is not an impossible task. After all, Japan has already had multiple nuclear power plants, which use the technology of enriching uranium below 3.5%.

Japan joins South Korea may join Indo-Pacific version of small NATO

The third significance lies in the participation of Japan, which proves that the AUKUS alliance is an open alliance. Once Japan joins, South Korea may become the next candidate country, plus the United States, India and the Philippines. Bilateral allies or quasi-allies, an Indo-Pacific version of a small NATO has basically taken shape.

As we have said before, the CCP is proud to say that Russia has blocked the CCP’s sword and stunned the CCP, and has carried out a new version of 911 to divert the focus of the United States. In fact, it is wishful thinking, and this is the reason. In fact, not only did the United States not care much, but instead used the Russian-Ukrainian war to quickly accomplish things that had been difficult in the past for a long time. Even Pelosi almost went to Taiwan. Do you think the pressure on the CCP is less or more? ?

Shanghai red big V gets iron fist

Okay, there’s still a little time for us to talk about some new situations in Shanghai’s lockdown.

One of the most prominent focuses of the closure of Shanghai in the past two days is that many pink big Vs have tasted the taste of iron fist before, which made the public sigh with emotion for a while. For example, Fang Fang, who once scolded Wuhan, and Liuliu, a Shanghai writer who publicly said that the official clearance measures were not strict enough, did not succeed in Liuliu during the city’s lockdown. He suffered a heart attack and was worried that he would be caught in the shelter and would not receive treatment, so he publicly called for help on Weibo.

There is also Internet celebrity Yang Hua, who has frequently reported netizens’ “negative energy” before. In a blink of an eye, he also began to complain about his mother’s inability to buy food and the government’s press conference still claiming that the supply is sufficient, or as he said, there is “Smearing the government”.

The experience of pink economist Lang Xianping is even more embarrassing. His mother had kidney failure. After being sent to the hospital, she could not be admitted to the hospital because she had no nucleic acid test report. After the emergency test on site, she actually waited for 4 hours without getting the result. The old man died while waiting.

In addition, Shen Yi from Fudan complained about running out of food, and Li Ziyang, who once publicly claimed that netizens who “handed knives” should be buried alive, also began to claim that being positive was not scary, and he also began to hand over knives to overseas.

The most representative is Wei Guiguo, former assistant to the president of Pacific Securities and vice president of Netcom Securities Co., Ltd. On April 4th, he was still endorsing the official “clearing” policy, posting that he supported dynamic clearing, and praised that when he brought Wanwan home in the future, the mobilization of the national war would be nothing more than the same, and concluded that it would be seen by then, Difficulties and costs are now minimal.

As a result, a few days later, due to a sudden cerebral hemorrhage, the daughter around him could not contact the hospital for treatment, and he watched his father die at home.

Of course, everyone hopes that Liuliu or Yang Hua’s relatives will eventually be rescued. After all, although the five cents pink who lives by eating human blood steamed buns is abominable, their relatives deserve the humanitarian assistance they deserve. It’s just that we can see from the encounters of these pink celebrities that they are actually very representative.

Regardless of whether they are in the system or not, they have positioned themselves as the surnamed Zhao and the party’s “own people”. They firmly believe that the iron fist of the Zhao family will not fall on their heads, so they trample on them so recklessly and even tear them apart. Bite those who dare to speak out about their victimization experience and speak out for the victims of the Zhao family.

This brings me to another piece of news that is very much in focus. In the past two days, a 19-minute recording in Pudong, Shanghai has gone viral on Weibo. The recording shows that law enforcement officers came to the door and announced that they had received a notice that the hostess’s family must be taken to the makeshift hospital for isolation if they were positive. The hostess repeatedly defended, saying that the test report she got was negative, that the hospital had made a mistake in the result and that it had been corrected, and that she had a recording of the communication with the hospital in her hand.

But the other party didn’t listen at all, and just kept repeating that the order he received was to take people away, and nothing else. If the hostess’s family is not convinced, they can go to the cabin and complain. The hostess collapsed on the spot, shouting: Is this the way the government is! Is that what the party is like? So, am I going to die in front of you with a knife, will you go with the corpse?

Of course, the final result is not surprising, the hostess family of the recording still had to pack up and be taken away.

Recording heat transfer: a very terrifying phenomenon

During the time when Xi’an was closed, I discussed with my friends on the show that the mandatory mass incarceration of certain groups of people for the so-called “social clearing” actually opened the way for the Nazis to enforce the Jewish community. A Pandora’s Box of “Social Clearance”.

The fundamental feature of this model is that the government can, in the name of “national security” or “public security”, deprive certain groups of their legal rights, or forcibly send them to places where you don’t even know where they are. The process does not require any judicial proceedings.

The experience of Lang Xianping belongs to the former, and the family in the recording belongs to the latter. The biggest thing they have in common is that they all have a big satellite identity mark like the Jewish people back then: a yellow code or a red code. As long as you have this mark, you will instantly become a public enemy of society, or in other words, you will be divided instantly, no longer one of your own, or even no longer an object that can be united, but needs like the rightists and the black five. The object that was hit and transformed.

The CCP’s health code system and the vaccine passports that Western leftists once wanted to develop are essentially identity politics. It’s just that the Western vaccine passports are only short-lived, and the CCP’s lockdown will only exist for a long time.

In particular, the information revealed by this recording is even more terrifying, because this is a typical secret police arrest mode. No matter how much evidence you show to prove that you meet the standard of not being taken away, it is meaningless. With a single call above, your whole family can disappear into the dark at any time. No one will know where you went, what you have been through, and whether you will come back alive in the end, whether you died of disease or some other cause… all of which no one will know.

When Xi’an was closed, Dabai came to arrest people with a test report at least. In Shanghai only 3 months later, the test report was invalid. The party said that if you are positive, you are positive. How fast is this evolution? It’s creepy to think about.

Therefore, for those who think that they speak for the party and stand for the party, don’t think that they have a good composition because they are labeled as a red big V. The CCP’s standard for dividing the composition of the people has never been set. In the previous political movements, there are countless examples of people who think their composition is good and criticize others for rectifying others.

If you still have friends who don’t believe it, you can ask the old people at home, they will tell you bloody and cruel true stories that I can’t even tell.

Okay, that’s all for today, thank you for watching and listening, see you next time.

“Foresight Quick Review” Production Team

(Editor in charge: Li Hong)

URL of this article: https://www.ntdtv.com/gb/2022/04/14/a103399772.html